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Weltwirtschaftswachstum beschleunigt sich, Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte bleiben hoch. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2011

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Zwischen 2006 und 2011 dürften der Welthandel um durchschnittlich 7,7% und das Welt-BIP um 4,4% pro Jahr zunehmen, rascher als in den vergangenen 5 Jahren. Unter den Industrieländern werden die USA mit +3,1% weiterhin ein etwas höheres Wirtschaftswachstum erreichen als die EU 25 (+2,3%). Von den großen EU-Ländern werden Großbritannien und Frankreich die stärkste Dynamik entfalten (+2,6% bzw. +2,2%), am schwächsten wird das Wachstum in Italien und Deutschland ausfallen (+1,4% bzw. +1,5%). Die enormen Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte zwischen dem Defizitland USA und den Überschussländern China, Japan, Deutschland und der OPEC verringern sich nur wenig. Sie bilden den größten Unsicherheitsfaktor der vorliegenden Prognose.

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  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Weltwirtschaftswachstum beschleunigt sich, Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte bleiben hoch. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2011," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 80(2), pages 109-120, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2007:i:2:p:109-120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parities for Tradables, Exchange Rates and Price Competitiveness," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25656.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Globalization without Global Money: The Double Role of the Dollar as National Currency and World Currency," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 365-395, March.
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    Mittelfristprognose Weltwirtschaft;

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