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Aktienkursdynamik und privater Konsum in den USA und in Deutschland

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Die Studie dokumentiert die langfristige Entwicklung der wichtigsten Komponenten des Real- und Finanzvermögens der privaten Haushalte sowie ihre Verteilung nach Einkommensklassen. Die statistischen Zusammenhänge zwischen dem Gesamtvermögen der Haushalte und dem Konsum erweisen sich dabei als enger als zwischen den jeweiligen Bewertungsvermögen (ausschließlich auf Veränderungen von "asset prices" zurückzuführen) und dem Konsum. Dies impliziert, dass die Konsumnachfrage der Haushalte auch mit erwarteten Vermögensänderungen korreliert ist. Die Konsumquoten stiegen zudem nach Haushaltsklassen umso stärker, je niedriger das Niveau der Einkommen und damit des aktienkursabhängigen Finanzvermögens war; jene Haushalte, welche vom Aktienboom am meisten profitierten, weiteten demnach ihre Konsumnachfrage am schwächsten aus. Auf Änderungen des Immobilenvermögens reagiert der Konsum der Haushalte stärker als auf Änderungen des aktienkursabhängigen Finanzvermögens. Die Studie zeigt, in welchen Punkten die empirische Evidenz den Erwartungen der Lebenszyklustheorie des Konsums widerspricht, und skizziert einen alternativen Erklärungsansatz.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2004. "Aktienkursdynamik und privater Konsum in den USA und in Deutschland," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25188.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:25188
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Belebung des Wirtschaftswachstums nach Schwächephase. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2012," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 81(5), pages 353-364, May.

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