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Changes in the Distribution of Earnings Volatility

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  • Shane T. Jensen
  • Stephen H. Shore

Abstract

Recent research has documented a rise in the volatility of individual labor earnings in the United States since 1970. Existing measures of this trend abstract from within-group latent heterogeneity, effectively estimating an increase in average volatility for observable groups. We decompose this average and find no systematic rise in volatility for the vast majority of individuals. Increasing average volatility has been driven almost entirely by rising earnings volatility of those with the most volatile earnings, identified ex ante by large past earnings changes. We characterize dynamics of the volatility distribution with a nonparametric Bayesian stochastic volatility model from Jensen and Shore (2011).

Suggested Citation

  • Shane T. Jensen & Stephen H. Shore, 2015. "Changes in the Distribution of Earnings Volatility," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 811-836.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:50:y:2015:i:3:p:811-836
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olga Gorbachev, 2011. "Did Household Consumption Become More Volatile?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2248-2270, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2018. "Income Volatility and the PSID: Past Research and New Results," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 277-280, May.
    2. Giesecke, Matthias & Bönke, Timm & Lüthen, Holger, 2011. "The Dynamics of Earnings in Germany: Evidence from Social Security Records," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48692, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Kevin L. McKinney & John M. Abowd, 2022. "Male Earnings Volatility in LEHD Before, During, and After the Great Recession," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 33-39, December.
    4. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2022. "Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 20-25, December.
    5. Giuseppe Bertola & Anna Lo Prete, 2015. "Reforms, Finance, and Current Accounts," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 469-488, August.
    6. Li Tan, 2021. "Imputing Top‐Coded Income Data in Longitudinal Surveys," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 66-87, February.
    7. João Nicolau & Pedro Raposo & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2023. "Measuring wage inequality under right censoring," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 377-401, April.
    8. Morrissey, Taryn W. & Cha, Yun & Wolf, Sharon & Khan, Mariam, 2020. "Household economic instability: Constructs, measurement, and implications," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Ulrike Malmendier & Leslie Sheng Shen, 2024. "Scarred Consumption," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 322-355, January.
    10. d’Astous, Philippe & Shore, Stephen H., 2024. "Programs of study and earnings dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Costanza Naguib & Patrick Gagliardini, 2023. "A Semi-nonparametric Copula Model for Earnings Mobility," Diskussionsschriften dp2302, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    12. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2018. "The PSID and Income Volatility: Its Record of Seminal Research and Some New Findings," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 680(1), pages 48-81, November.
    13. Neil Bania & Laura Leete, 2022. "Monthly income volatility and health outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 636-658, October.
    14. Jonathan Fisher & Bradley L. Hardy, 2023. "Money matters: consumption variability across the income distribution," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 275-298, September.
    15. d'Astous, Philippe & Shore, Stephen H., 2024. "Human capital risk and portfolio choices: Evidence from university admission discontinuities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    16. Botosaru, Irene, 2023. "Time-varying unobserved heterogeneity in earnings shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1378-1393.
    17. Irene Botosaru, 2017. "Identifying Distributions in a Panel Model with Heteroskedasticity: An Application to Earnings Volatility," Discussion Papers dp17-11, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    18. Jan Vlachý, 2017. "Analýza daňových systémů středoevropských zemí pomocí statistické simulace [An Analysis of Central European Tax Systems Using Statistical Simulation]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(4), pages 410-423.
    19. Moshe Justman & Hadas Stiassnie, 2021. "Inequality in Lifetime Earnings, 1986-2012," Working Papers 579, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    20. Silvia Avram & Mike Brewer & Paul Fisher & Laura Fumagalli, 2022. "Household Earnings and Income Volatility in the UK, 2009–2017," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 345-369, June.

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