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Bayesian Estimation of Total Fertility from a Population's Age-Sex Distribution

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  • Schmertmann, Carl

    (Florida State University)

  • Hauer, Mathew

Abstract

We investigate a modern statistical approach to a classic deterministic demographic estimation technique. When vital event registration is missing or inadequate, it is possible to approximate a population's total fertility (TFR) from information about its distribution by age and sex. For example, if under-five child mortality is low then TFR is often close to seven times the child/woman ratio (CWR), the number of 0--4 year olds per 15--49 year old woman. We analyze the formal relationship between CWR and TFR to identify sources of uncertainty in indirect estimates. We construct a Bayesian model for the statistical distribution of TFR conditional on the population's age-sex structure, in which unknown demographic quantities in the standard approximation are parameters with prior distributions. We apply the model in two case studies: to a small indigenous population in the Amazon region of Brazil that has extremely high fertility rates, and to the set of 159 counties in the US state of Georgia. A statistical approach yields important insights into the sources of error in indirect estimation, and their relative magnitudes.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmertmann, Carl & Hauer, Mathew, 2017. "Bayesian Estimation of Total Fertility from a Population's Age-Sex Distribution," SocArXiv je59v_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:je59v_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/je59v_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. John Wilmoth & Sarah Zureick & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Mie Inoue & Cheryl Sawyer, 2012. "A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(1), pages 1-28.
    3. Donald Bogue & James Palmore, 1964. "Some empirical and analytic relations among demographic fertility measures, with regression models for fertility estimation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 316-338, March.
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