IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rjerxx/v18y1999i2p313-333.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real Estate Securities and a Filter-based, Short-term Trading Strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Cooper
  • David Downs
  • Gary Patterson

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence provides overwhelming support to the belief that sophisticated real estate investors profit by timing long-run real estate cycles. This article examines the investment performance benefits that sophisticated investors may derive from short-run cycles in real estate, specifically, through the publicly traded real estate markets. Using a simple strategy that filters out noise in real estate investment trust (REIT) price reversals, this study shows that a contrarian strategy is many times more profitable than the associated execution costs. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that the REIT market has been sufficiently liquid to execute this trading strategy. This last point is directly related to the filter strategy since only REITs with large price movements satisfy the hypothetical investor's selection criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Cooper & David Downs & Gary Patterson, 1999. "Real Estate Securities and a Filter-based, Short-term Trading Strategy," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 313-333, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjerxx:v:18:y:1999:i:2:p:313-333
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.1999.12090998
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10835547.1999.12090998
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10835547.1999.12090998?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. "Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-182, March.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Conrad, Jennifer S & Hameed, Allaudeen & Niden, Cathy, 1994. "Volume and Autocovariances in Short-Horizon Individual Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1305-1329, September.
    4. Cooper, Michael & Downs, David H & Patterson, Gary A, 2000. "Asymmetric Information and the Predictability of Real Estate Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 225-244, March.
    5. Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1990. "Anomalous Price Behavior around Repurchase Tender Offers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 455-477, June.
    6. Charles J. Corrado & Suk-Hun Lee, 1992. "Filter Rule Tests Of The Economic Significance Of Serial Dependencies In Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 369-387, December.
    7. Darrat, Ali F & Glascock, John L, 1993. "On the Real Estate Market Efficiency," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 55-72, July.
    8. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    9. Cox, Don R & Peterson, David R, 1994. "Stock Returns Following Large One-Day Declines: Evidence on Short-Term Reversals and Longer-Term Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 255-267, March.
    10. Keim, Donald B. & Madhavan, Ananth, 1997. "Transactions costs and investment style: an inter-exchange analysis of institutional equity trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 265-292, December.
    11. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Martingale-Like Behavior of Prices," NBER Working Papers 0489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Liu, Crocker H & Mei, Jianping, 1992. "The Predictability of Returns on Equity REITs and Their Co-movement with Other Assets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 401-418, December.
    13. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    14. Yuming Li & Ko Wang, 1995. "The Predictability of REIT Returns and Market Segmentatio," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 471-482.
    15. Conrad, Jennifer & Gultekin, Mustafa N & Kaul, Gautam, 1997. "Profitability of Short-Term Contrarian Strategies: Implications for Market Efficiency," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 379-386, July.
    16. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    17. Darcey D. Terris & F.C. Neil Myer, 1995. "The Predictability of REIT Returns and Market Segmentatio," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 483-494.
    18. Charles J. Corrado & Suk-Hun Lee, 1992. "Filter Rule Tests Of The Economic Significance Of Serial Dependencies In Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 369-387, December.
    19. Rakesh Bharati & Manoj Gupta, 1992. "Asset Allocation and Predictability of Real Estate Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 7(4), pages 469-484.
    20. Edward Nelling & Joseph Gyourko, 1998. "The Predictability of Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 251-268.
    21. Bremer, Marc & Sweeney, Richard J, 1991. "The Reversal of Large Stock-Price Decreases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 747-754, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2010. "Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 170-192, August.
    2. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    3. Zhu, Zhaobo & Harrison, DavidM. & Seiler, MichaelJ., 2020. "Preference for lottery features in real estate investment trusts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 599-613.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hung-Gay Fung & Wai K. Leung & Gary A. Patterson, 1999. "Do Trading Rules Based upon Winners and Losers Work Across Markets? Evidence from the Pacific Basin and U.S. Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 41-70, March.
    2. Dyl, Edward A. & Yuksel, H. Zafer & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2019. "Price reversals and price continuations following large price movements," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Savor, Pavel G., 2012. "Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 635-659.
    4. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Simon Stevenson, 2002. "Momentum Effects and Mean Reversion in Real Estate Securities," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 47-64.
    6. Lo, Kevin & Coggins, Richard, 2006. "Effects of order flow imbalance on short-horizon contrarian strategies in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 291-310, June.
    7. Borgards, Oliver & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "The prevalence of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. repec:rfb:journl:v:09:y:2017:i:2:p:007-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Evidence on the contrarian trading in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1420-1431, November.
    10. Oral Erdogan & Ari Yezegel, 2009. "The news of no news in stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 897-909.
    11. Rhee, S. Ghon & Wang, Chi-Jeng, 1997. "The bid-ask bounce effect and the spread size effect: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 231-258, June.
    12. John Glascock & Ran Lu-Andrews, 2015. "The Price Behavior of REITs Surrounding Extreme Market-Related Events," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 441-479, November.
    13. Wang, Changyun & Yu, Min, 2004. "Trading activity and price reversals in futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1337-1361, June.
    14. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2021. "Stock Price Dynamics Surrounding Company-Specific Shocks," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 32-45.
    15. Ran Lu-Andrews & John L. Glascock, 2017. "Liquidity, Price Behavior, and Market-related Events," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 318-351, March.
    16. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "Holiday Effect on Large Stock Price Changes," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 633-660, November.
    17. Edward Nelling & Joseph Gyourko, 1998. "The Predictability of Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 251-268.
    18. Hameed, Allaudeen & Ting, Serena, 2000. "Trading volume and short-horizon contrarian profits: Evidence from the Malaysian market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 67-84, March.
    19. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Robert Campbell & John Knight, 2006. "Are There Rational Speculative Bubbles in REITs?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 105-127, March.
    20. Kassimatis, Konstantinos & Spyrou, Spyros & Galariotis, Emilios, 2008. "Short-term patterns in government bond returns following market shocks: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 903-924, December.
    21. Asiya Sohail & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "The Global Financial Crisis and Investors’ Behaviour; Evidence from the Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:106, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjerxx:v:18:y:1999:i:2:p:313-333. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjer20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.