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Martingale-Like Behavior of Prices

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  • Christopher A. Sims

Abstract

Asset prices set in a competitive market need not be martingales; that is, it need not be true that the best predictor of future prices is the current price. Nonetheless, statistical tests for this property are sometimes treated as tests for the proper functioning of an asset market; asset prices often seem to have the property to a close approximation, and it is sometimes supposed that the martingale ought to be imposed on econometric models of asset markets and forecasts made from them. This paper shows that under general conditions, which allow among other things for risk aversion among market participants, competitive asset prices ought to be locally -- over small units of time -- martingale-like. This implies that tests of proper functioning of the market ought to be conducted with data at fine time intervals; results of such tests should not be used to justify imposing the martingale property on a model's long-term projections of asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Martingale-Like Behavior of Prices," NBER Working Papers 0489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0489
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    1. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1973. "Risk Aversion and the Martingale Property of Stock Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 436-446, June.
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    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    4. Ross, Stephen A, 1978. "A Simple Approach to the Valuation of Risky Streams," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 453-475, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Cooper & David H. Downs, 1999. "Real Estate Securities and a Filter-based, Short-term Trading Strategy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 313-334.
    2. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.
    3. Hu, Beibei & Ding, Yang & Dong, Xianlei & Bu, Yi & Ding, Ying, 2021. "On the relationship between download and citation counts: An introduction of Granger-causality inference," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    4. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2023. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Economic Growth in the Presence of Fiscal Consolidation in South Africa from 1994 to 2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, April.
    5. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
    6. Garcia, R. & Renault, E., 1998. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing," Cahiers de recherche 9801, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    7. Yang Ding & Xianlei Dong & Yi Bu & Bin Zhang & Kexin Lin & Beibei Hu, 2021. "Revisiting the relationship between downloads and citations: a perspective from papers with different citation patterns in the case of the Lancet," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(9), pages 7609-7621, September.
    8. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Joseph Onochie, 1996. "Nonlinear Nonparametric Prediction of the 90-Day T-Bill Rate," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 320., Boston College Department of Economics.
    9. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1988. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 2533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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