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The Predictability of REIT Returns and Market Segmentatio

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Abstract

A two-factor regression model was used to examine the relationship between returns on healthcare equity REITs (EREITs) and healthcare stocks from 1985 to 1992. General stock indices were incorporated in the model to account for the influence of the market. Multiple positive contemporaneous relationships were found between six of the seven REITs studied and portfolios of other healthcare stocks. Furthermore, in four of the six REITs with positive results, significant correlations were evident between individual REIT portfolios and the SIC indices with which they showed a significant relationship. These results are consistent with a common factor or factors affecting the returns of both healthcare EREITs and stocks. The relationships found between returns on healthcare EREITs and healthcare stocks, especially the correlation between the classification of the EREIT portfolios and SIC indices, indicate the importance of real estate management for healthcare firms and asset subclassification choice for the real estate manager. Although this study specifically investigated healthcare EREITs and healthcare stocks, the results may be more widely applicable to other single-property-type EREITs.

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  • Darcey D. Terris & F.C. Neil Myer, 1995. "The Predictability of REIT Returns and Market Segmentatio," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 483-494.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:10:n:4:1995:p:483-494
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    1. Joseph Gyourko & Edward Nelling, 1996. "Systematic Risk and Diversification in the Equity REIT Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 493-515, December.
    2. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485, September.
    3. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revision of 18-91) (Reprint 030)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. F.C. Neil Myer & James R. Webb, 1994. "Retail Stocks, Retail REITs, and Retail Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(1), pages 65-84.
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    1. John Cotter & Simon Stevenson, 2006. "Multivariate Modeling of Daily REIT Volatility," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 305-325, May.
    2. Michael Cooper & David H. Downs, 1999. "Real Estate Securities and a Filter-based, Short-term Trading Strategy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 313-334.
    3. Su Han Chan & Wai Kin Leung & Ko Wang, 1998. "Institutional Investment in REITs: Evidence and Implications," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 357-374.
    4. Edward Nelling & Joseph Gyourko, 1998. "The Predictability of Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 251-268.
    5. James Payne & Hassan Mohammadi, 2004. "The transmission of shocks across real estate investment trust (REIT) markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1211-1217.
    6. Simon Stevenson, 2002. "Momentum Effects and Mean Reversion in Real Estate Securities," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 47-64.
    7. James Payne, 2003. "Shocks to macroeconomic state variables and the risk premium of REITs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 671-677.
    8. John Cotter & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Uncovering Volatility Dynamics in Daily REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 119-128, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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