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Momentum Effects and Mean Reversion in Real Estate Securities

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  • Simon Stevenson

    (University College Dublin, Blackrock County Dublin, Ireland)

Abstract

This article is the winner of the International Real Estate Investment/ Portfolio Management manuscript prize (sponsored by LaSalle Investment Management) presented at the American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting. This article tests for the presence of both price continuation and price reversals in international real estate securities. The results reveal evidence of performance persistence in international markets over short and medium term horizons, however the evidence on price reversals is less compelling. The empirical analysis tests for mean reversion using Variance Ratio and Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. In neither case is there consistent evidence of mean reversion in international real estate securities. The portfolio switching tests do reveal some evidence of performance reversals. However, while under-performing markets do outperform over longer horizons, they do not do so at statistically significant levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Stevenson, 2002. "Momentum Effects and Mean Reversion in Real Estate Securities," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 47-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:23:n:1/2:2002:p:47-64
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    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2010. "Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 170-192, August.
    2. Lee, Jen-Sin & Huang, Gow-Liang & Kuo, Chin-Tai & Lee, Liang-Chien, 2012. "The momentum effect on Chinese real estate stocks: Evidence from firm performance levels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2392-2406.
    3. John Cotter & Simon Stevenson, 2008. "Modeling Long Memory in REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 533-554, September.
    4. Hao Fang & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2013. "Are the Global REIT Markets Efficient by a New Approach?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 743-757, December.
    5. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Cheng-Feng & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2014. "Asymmetric dynamics in REIT prices: Further evidence based on quantile regression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 29-37.
    6. John G. Gallo & Larry J. Lockwood & Ying Zhang, 2013. "Structuring Global Property Portfolios: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(1), pages 53-82.
    7. Kim Liow, 2009. "Long-term Memory in Volatility: Some Evidence from International Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 415-438, November.
    8. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    9. Akarim, Yasemin Deniz & Sevim, Serafettin, 2013. "The impact of mean reversion model on portfolio investment strategies: Empirical evidence from emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 453-459.
    10. Jochem J. Bron & Chinmoy Ghosh & Milena Petrova, 2018. "On the Earnings and Price Momentum Strategies: Evidence from European Real Estate Firms," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 400-430, October.
    11. John Gallo & Ying Zhang, 2010. "Global Property Market Diversification," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 458-485, November.
    12. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    13. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    14. Axelsson, Birger & Song, Han-Suck, 2023. "Univariate Forecasting for REITs with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis with an ARIMA Model," Working Paper Series 23/10, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance, revised 14 Nov 2023.
    15. Kyriakou, Maria I. & Babalos, Vassilios & Kiohos, Apostolos & Koulakiotis, Athanasios, 2020. "Feedback trading strategies and long-term volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 181-189.
    16. Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn & Dean Earea, 2021. "Industry momentum: an exchange‐traded funds approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4007-4024, September.
    17. Demir, Isabelle & Muthuswamy, Jay & Walter, Terry, 2004. "Momentum returns in Australian equities: The influences of size, risk, liquidity and return computation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 143-158, April.
    18. Bruce J. Vanstone & Tom Smith & Tobias Hahn, 2017. "Australian momentum: performance, capacity and the GFC effect," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 261-287, March.
    19. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    20. Geoffrey M. Ngene & Catherine Anitha Manohar & Ivan F. Julio, 2020. "Overreaction in the REITs Market: New Evidence from Quantile Autoregression Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-28, November.
    21. Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Gabriel O. Oduyemi & Johnson A. Oliyide, 2021. "Price and volatility persistence of the US REITs market," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    22. Minye Zhang & Yongheng Deng, 2008. "REITs Return Behavior and Legal Infrastructure: The 1993 Revenue Reconciliation Act & Inspirations for China's Emerging REITS Market," Working Paper 8532, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    23. Tsung‐Yu Chen & Guan‐Ying Huang & Zhen‐Xing Wu, 2022. "Overreaction‐based momentum in the real estate investment trust market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 453-471, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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