IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cuf/journl/y2019v20i2kudryavtsev.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Holiday Effect on Large Stock Price Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Andrey Kudryavtsev

    (Economics and Management Department, The Max Stern Yezreel Valley Academic College)

Abstract

The study documents that both positive and negative large stock price moves occurring immediately before public holidays are followed by significant post-holiday price drifts, whose magnitude increases over longer time windows, while large stock price moves taking place on other days are followed by either non-significant or marginally significant price reversals. This holiday effect is more pronounced for small and more volatile stocks and remains robust after accounting for additional company- and event-specific factors. The findings may be attributed to investors' unwillingness to make influential trading decisions before holidays, which leads to underreaction to company-specific shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "Holiday Effect on Large Stock Price Changes," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 633-660, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2019:v:20:i:2:kudryavtsev
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://down.aefweb.net/AefArticles/aef200207Kudryavtsev.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cooper, Michael, 1999. "Filter Rules Based on Price and Volume in Individual Security Overreaction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 901-935.
    2. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan L. & Joulmer, Joulmer, 2009. "Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1481-1493, August.
    3. Conrad, Jennifer S & Hameed, Allaudeen & Niden, Cathy, 1994. "Volume and Autocovariances in Short-Horizon Individual Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1305-1329, September.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    5. Savor, Pavel G., 2012. "Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 635-659.
    6. Atkins, Allen B. & Dyl, Edward A., 1990. "Price Reversals, Bid-Ask Spreads, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 535-547, December.
    7. Meneu, Vicente & Pardo, Angel, 2004. "Pre-holiday effect, large trades and small investor behaviour," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 231-246, March.
    8. Paul Brockman & David Michayluk, 1998. "The persistent holiday effect: additional evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 205-209.
    9. Agrawal, Anup & Tandon, Kishore, 1994. "Anomalies or illusions? Evidence from stock markets in eighteen countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-106, February.
    10. Paul C. Tetlock, 2010. "Does Public Financial News Resolve Asymmetric Information?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3520-3557.
    11. repec:uts:ppaper:y:1997:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    13. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    14. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "Liquidity and Autocorrelations in Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2365-2394, October.
    15. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-686.
    16. Bremer, Marc & Hiraki, Takato & Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Predictable Patterns after Large Stock Price Changes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 345-365, September.
    17. Vega, Clara, 2006. "Stock price reaction to public and private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 103-133, October.
    18. Foort HAMELINK, 1999. "Systematic Patterns Before and After Large Price Changes: Evidence from High Frequency Data from the Paris Bourse," FAME Research Paper Series rp6, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    19. Glenn N. Pettengill, 1989. "Holiday Closings And Security Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 12(1), pages 57-67, March.
    20. Keim, Donald B., 1989. "Trading patterns, bid-ask spreads, and estimated security returns : The case of common stocks at calendar turning points," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 75-97, November.
    21. George Marrett & Andrew Worthington, 2009. "An empirical note on the holiday effect in the Australian stock market, 1996-2006," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1769-1772.
    22. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. "High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-1626, December.
    23. Cadsby, Charles Bram & Ratner, Mitchell, 1992. "Turn-of-month and pre-holiday effects on stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 497-509, June.
    24. Pritamani, Mahesh & Singal, Vijay, 2001. "Return predictability following large price changes and information releases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 631-656, April.
    25. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    26. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2018. "The Availability Heuristic and Reversals Following Large Stock Price Changes," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 159-176, April.
    27. Paul Brockman & David Michayluk, 1997. "The Holiday Anomaly: An Investigation of Firm Size versus Share Price Effects," Published Paper Series 1997-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    28. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2005. "Day-of-the-week effects in the pre-holiday returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 107-119.
    29. Cox, Don R & Peterson, David R, 1994. "Stock Returns Following Large One-Day Declines: Evidence on Short-Term Reversals and Longer-Term Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 255-267, March.
    30. David L. Ikenberry & Sundaresh Ramnath, 2002. "Underreaction to Self-Selected News Events: The Case of Stock Splits," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 489-526, March.
    31. Bley, Jorg & Saad, Mohsen, 2010. "Cross-cultural differences in seasonality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 306-312, September.
    32. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    33. Barone, E., 1990. "The italian stock market : Efficiency and calendar anomalies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 483-510, August.
    34. Kim, Chan-Wung & Park, Jinwoo, 1994. "Holiday Effects and Stock Returns: Further Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 145-157, March.
    35. Roger Vergin & John McGinnis, 1999. "Revisiting the Holiday Effect: is it on holiday?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 477-482.
    36. Stephen J. Larson & Jeff Madura, 2003. "What Drives Stock Price Behavior Following Extreme One‐Day Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 113-127, March.
    37. Park, Jinwoo, 1995. "A Market Microstructure Explanation for Predictable Variations in Stock Returns following Large Price Changes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 241-256, June.
    38. Donald B. Keim, "undated". "Trading Patterns, Bid-Ask Spreads and Estimated Security Returns: The Case of Common Stocks at Calendar Turning Points (Reprint 008)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    39. Bremer, Marc & Sweeney, Richard J, 1991. "The Reversal of Large Stock-Price Decreases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 747-754, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Rao, Purnima & Verma, Shubhangi, 2023. "Emotions and stock market anomalies: A systematic review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:rfb:journl:v:09:y:2017:i:2:p:007-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2017. ""I'll Think about it Tomorrow": Price Drifts Following Large Pre-Holiday Stock Price Moves," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 9(2), pages 043-062, December.
    3. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2021. "Stock Price Dynamics Surrounding Company-Specific Shocks," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 32-45.
    4. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "The Effect Of Trading Volumes On Stock Returns Following Large Price Moves," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 85-116, January –.
    5. Pham Dan Khanh & Pham Thanh Dat & Bui Huy Nhuong, 2020. "A Re-examination of the Holiday Effect in Stock Returns: The Case of Vietnam," Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology, Learning Gate, vol. 4(1), pages 51-54.
    6. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2018. "Holiday effect on stock price reactions to analyst recommendation revisions," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(7), pages 507-521, December.
    7. Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete F. S. Vieira, 2013. "Another look at the holiday effect," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(20), pages 1623-1633, October.
    8. Dyl, Edward A. & Yuksel, H. Zafer & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2019. "Price reversals and price continuations following large price movements," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    10. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2017. "VIX Index and Stock Returns Following Large Price Moves," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 71-101.
    11. Savor, Pavel G., 2012. "Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 635-659.
    12. Yuan, Tian & Gupta, Rakesh, 2014. "Chinese Lunar New Year effect in Asian stock markets, 1999–2012," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 529-537.
    13. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    14. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    15. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2020. "The Extended Holiday Effect on US capital market," MPRA Paper 100463, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2020.
    16. Lahav, Eyal & Shavit, Tal & Benzion, Uri, 2016. "Can't wait to celebrate: Holiday euphoria, impulsive behavior and time preference," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 128-134.
    17. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2015, January-A.
    18. Tian Yuan & Rakesh Gupta & Robert J. Bianchi, 2015. "The Pre-Holiday Effect in China: Abnormal Returns or Compensation for Risk?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-28.
    19. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    20. Brian Lucey, 2005. "Are local or international influences responsible for the pre-holiday behaviour of Irish equities?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 381-389.
    21. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral finance; Holiday effect; Mood maintenance hypothesis; Large price changes; Stock price drifts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2019:v:20:i:2:kudryavtsev. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Qiang Gao (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emcufcn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.