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Selecting the Correct Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models: The Large Panel Case With Group Bridge Estimators

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  • Mehmet Caner
  • Xu Han

Abstract

This article proposes a group bridge estimator to select the correct number of factors in approximate factor models. It contributes to the literature on shrinkage estimation and factor models by extending the conventional bridge estimator from a single equation to a large panel context. The proposed estimator can consistently estimate the factor loadings of relevant factors and shrink the loadings of irrelevant factors to zero with a probability approaching one. Hence, it provides a consistent estimate for the number of factors. We also propose an algorithm for the new estimator; Monte Carlo experiments show that our algorithm converges reasonably fast and that our estimator has very good performance in small samples. An empirical example is also presented based on a commonly used U.S. macroeconomic dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Caner & Xu Han, 2014. "Selecting the Correct Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models: The Large Panel Case With Group Bridge Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 359-374, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:32:y:2014:i:3:p:359-374
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2014.880349
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wu, Jianhong, 2019. "Detecting irrelevant variables in possible proxies for the latent factors in macroeconomics and finance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 60-63.
    3. Thilo Reinschlussel & Martin C. Arnold, 2024. "Information-Enriched Selection of Stationary and Non-Stationary Autoregressions using the Adaptive Lasso," Papers 2402.16580, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    4. Onatski, Alexei, 2015. "Asymptotic analysis of the squared estimation error in misspecified factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 388-406.
    5. Yan Zhou & Peter X.‐K. Song & Xiaoquan Wen, 2021. "Structural factor equation models for causal network construction via directed acyclic mixed graphs," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 573-586, June.
    6. Chiang, Harold D. & Rodrigue, Joel & Sasaki, Yuya, 2023. "Post-Selection Inference In Three-Dimensional Panel Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 623-658, June.
    7. Simon Freyaldenhoven, 2020. "Identification Through Sparsity in Factor Models," Working Papers 20-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2017. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 351-372, August.
    9. Zhu, Xuehu & Guo, Xu & Wang, Tao & Zhu, Lixing, 2020. "Dimensionality determination: A thresholding double ridge ratio approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Alain-Philippe Fortin & Patrick Gagliardini & O. Scaillet, 2022. "Eigenvalue tests for the number of latent factors in short panels," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-81, Swiss Finance Institute.
    11. Wei, Jie & Chen, Hui, 2020. "Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models by twice K-fold cross validation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    12. Bai, Jushan & Duan, Jiangtao & Han, Xu, 2024. "The likelihood ratio test for structural changes in factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    13. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2019. "A diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 503-521.
    14. Kock, Anders Bredahl, 2016. "Oracle inequalities, variable selection and uniform inference in high-dimensional correlated random effects panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 71-85.
    15. Alain-Philippe Fortin & Patrick Gagliardini & Olivier Scaillet, 2023. "Latent Factor Analysis in Short Panels," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-44, Swiss Finance Institute.
    16. Yoshimasa Uematsu & Takashi Yamagata, 2019. "Estimation of Weak Factor Models," DSSR Discussion Papers 96, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    17. Wu, Jianhong, 2016. "Robust determination for the number of common factors in the approximate factor models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 102-106.
    18. Qian, Junhui & Su, Liangjun, 2016. "Shrinkage estimation of common breaks in panel data models via adaptive group fused Lasso," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 86-109.
    19. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    20. Maurizio Daniele & Julie Schnaitmann, 2019. "A Regularized Factor-augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Papers 1912.06049, arXiv.org.
    21. Yu, Long & He, Yong & Zhang, Xinsheng, 2019. "Robust factor number specification for large-dimensional elliptical factor model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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