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Testing normality for unconditionally heteroscedastic macroeconomic variables

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  • Raïssi, Hamdi

Abstract

In this paper the testing of normality for unconditionally heteroscedastic macroeconomic time series is studied. It is underlined that the classical Jarque-Bera test (JB hereafter) for normality is inadequate in our framework. On the other hand it is found that the approach which consists in correcting the heteroscedasticity by kernel smoothing for testing normality is justified asymptotically. Nevertheless it appears from Monte Carlo experiments that such a methodology can noticeably suffer from size distortion for samples that are typical for macroeconomic variables. As a consequence a parametric bootstrap methodology for correcting the problem is proposed. The innovations distribution of a set of inflation measures for the U.S., Korea and Australia are analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Raïssi, Hamdi, 2018. "Testing normality for unconditionally heteroscedastic macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 140-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:140-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patilea, V. & Raïssi, H., 2013. "Corrected portmanteau tests for VAR models with time-varying variance," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 190-207.
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    3. Valentin Patilea & Hamdi Raïssi, 2014. "Testing Second-Order Dynamics for Autoregressive Processes in Presence of Time-Varying Variance," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(507), pages 1099-1111, September.
    4. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    5. Broto Carmen & Ruiz Esther, 2009. "Testing for Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the Components of Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, May.
    6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    7. Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2004. "Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 833-839, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconditionally heteroscedastic time series; Jarque-Bera test;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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