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Spatial measurement error in infectious disease models

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  • Rob Deardon
  • Babak Habibzadeh
  • Hau Yi Chung

Abstract

Individual-level models (ILMs) for infectious disease can be used to model disease spread between individuals while taking into account important covariates. One important covariate in determining the risk of infection transfer can be spatial location. At the same time, measurement error is a concern in many areas of statistical analysis, and infectious disease modelling is no exception. In this paper, we are concerned with the issue of measurement error in the recorded location of individuals when using a simple spatial ILM to model the spread of disease within a population. An ILM that incorporates spatial location random effects is introduced within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This model is tested upon both simulated data and data from the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. The ability of the model to successfully identify both the spatial infection kernel and the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) of the disease is tested.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Deardon & Babak Habibzadeh & Hau Yi Chung, 2012. "Spatial measurement error in infectious disease models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 1139-1150, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:39:y:2012:i:5:p:1139-1150
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2011.644522
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael J. Tildesley & Nicholas J. Savill & Darren J. Shaw & Rob Deardon & Stephen P. Brooks & Mark E. J. Woolhouse & Bryan T. Grenfell & Matt J. Keeling, 2006. "Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7080), pages 83-86, March.
    2. Neil M. Ferguson & Christl A. Donnelly & Roy M. Anderson, 2001. "Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6855), pages 542-548, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Arbia & Paolo Berta & Carrie B. Dolan, 2022. "Locational error in the estimation of regional discrete choice models using distance as a regressor," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 69(1), pages 223-238, August.

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