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Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Michael J. Tildesley

    (University of Warwick)

  • Nicholas J. Savill

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories)

  • Darren J. Shaw

    (University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Veterinary Centre)

  • Rob Deardon

    (University of Cambridge
    University of Cambridge)

  • Stephen P. Brooks

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Mark E. J. Woolhouse

    (University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories)

  • Bryan T. Grenfell

    (Pennsylvania State University
    National Institutes of Health)

  • Matt J. Keeling

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

Vaccination next time? Vaccination didn't feature among the controls used in the United Kingdom during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic of 2001. New Europe-wide policies, however, mean that next time, or when a similar disease threatens, reactive vaccination may be a preferred means of control. Data from the 2001 outbreak have now been used in an epidemiological model to work out the most efficient way of deploying vaccine stocks to restrict an outbreak by ring vaccination. Optimum containment is achieved by ignoring the order in which infections are reported, and instead vaccinating on the farms closest to previously reported cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Tildesley & Nicholas J. Savill & Darren J. Shaw & Rob Deardon & Stephen P. Brooks & Mark E. J. Woolhouse & Bryan T. Grenfell & Matt J. Keeling, 2006. "Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7080), pages 83-86, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:440:y:2006:i:7080:d:10.1038_nature04324
    DOI: 10.1038/nature04324
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Edward Frank Spencer & Philip D. O’Neill, 2013. "Assessing the Impact of Intervention Delays on Stochastic Epidemics," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 803-820, December.
    2. David Schley & Simon Gubbins & David J Paton, 2009. "Quantifying the Risk of Localised Animal Movement Bans for Foot-and-Mouth Disease," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(5), pages 1-6, May.
    3. McKinley Trevelyan & Cook Alex R & Deardon Robert, 2009. "Inference in Epidemic Models without Likelihoods," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-40, July.
    4. Stefan Sellman & Kimberly Tsao & Michael J Tildesley & Peter Brommesson & Colleen T Webb & Uno Wennergren & Matt J Keeling & Tom Lindström, 2018. "Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-27, April.
    5. Robin N Thompson & Christopher A Gilligan & Nik J Cunniffe, 2018. "Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Thomas House & Matt J Keeling, 2010. "The Impact of Contact Tracing in Clustered Populations," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-9, March.
    7. repec:jss:jstsof:36:i06 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tom Lindström & Michael Tildesley & Colleen Webb, 2015. "A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, April.
    9. Pilwon Kim & Chang Hyeong Lee, 2018. "Epidemic Spreading in Complex Networks with Resilient Nodes: Applications to FMD," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-9, March.
    10. Rorres, Chris & Pelletier, Sky T.K. & Keeling, Matt J. & Smith, Gary, 2010. "Estimating the kernel parameters of premises-based stochastic models of farmed animal infectious disease epidemics using limited, incomplete, or ongoing data," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 46-53.
    11. Tom Kompas & Pham Van Ha & Hoa-Thi-Minh Nguyen & Graeme Garner & Sharon Roche & Iain East, 2020. "Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Kompas, Tom & Ha, Pham Van & Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh & East, Iain & Roche, Sharon & Garner, Graeme, 2017. "Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(4), October.
    13. Maud Marsot & Séverine Rautureau & Barbara Dufour & Benoit Durand, 2014. "Impact of Stakeholders Influence, Geographic Level and Risk Perception on Strategic Decisions in Simulated Foot and Mouth Disease Epizootics in France," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, January.
    14. Rob Deardon & Babak Habibzadeh & Hau Yi Chung, 2012. "Spatial measurement error in infectious disease models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 1139-1150, November.

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