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Food Price Volatility and Vulnerability in the Global South: considering the global economic context

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  • Jennifer Clapp

Abstract

Most official analyses of the recent food price crisis have focused on the market fundamentals of supply and demand for food as key explanatory factors. As a result, most of the policy recommendations emanating from the major international institutions include measures to boost supply and temper demand. In this paper I argue that international macroeconomic factors played a key role in fostering both price volatility and vulnerability, and as such they need to be recognised. With respect to the recent price volatility, the weak US dollar and speculation on agricultural commodities futures markets greatly influenced agricultural prices. With respect to price vulnerability, global economic forces played an important role in dampening production incentives in the world's poorest countries over the past 30 years, leading to a situation of food import dependence. Policy responses to the food crisis must consider the role of these broader international macroeconomic forces—both in the immediate context and their longer term impact.

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  • Jennifer Clapp, 2009. "Food Price Volatility and Vulnerability in the Global South: considering the global economic context," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 1183-1196.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ctwqxx:v:30:y:2009:i:6:p:1183-1196
    DOI: 10.1080/01436590903037481
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavel Kotyza & Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Luboš Smutka & Petr Procházka, 2021. "Sugar Prices vs. Financial Market Uncertainty in the Time of Crisis: Does COVID-19 Induce Structural Changes in the Relationship?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Reis, Tiago N.P. dos & Bastos Lima, Mairon G. & Russo Lopes, Gabriela & Meyfroidt, Patrick, 2024. "Not all supply chains are created equal: The linkages between soy local trade relations and development outcomes in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    3. Estrades, Carmen, 2015. "The Role of Export Restrictions in Agriculture Trade," 2015: Trade and Societal Well-Being, December 13-15, 2015, Clearwater Beach, Florida 229229, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Rivera-Ferre, Marta G. & Ortega-Cerda, Miquel, 2011. "Assessment of the Agri-food System for Sustainability: Recognizing Ignorance," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115965, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Mei, Dexiang & Xie, Yutang, 2022. "U.S. grain commodity futures price volatility: Does trade policy uncertainty matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    6. Doris Fuchs & Agni Kalfagianni & Jennifer Clapp & Lawrence Busch, 2011. "Introduction to symposium on private agrifood governance: values, shortcomings and strategies," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 28(3), pages 335-344, September.
    7. Belesky, Paul, 2016. "Rice, politics and power: the political economy of food insecurity in East Asia," Thesis Commons hn264, Center for Open Science.
    8. Ojogho, Osaihiomwan & Egware, Robert Awotu, 2015. "Price Generating Process And Volatility In Nigerian Agricultural Commodities Market," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, October.
    9. Haase, Marco & Huss, Matthias, 2018. "Guilty speculators? Range-based conditional volatility in a cross-section of wheat futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 29-46.
    10. Qifeng Yang & Pingyu Zhang & Zuopeng Ma & Daqian Liu & Yongjia Guo, 2022. "Agricultural Economic Resilience in the Context of International Food Price Fluctuation—An Empirical Analysis on the Main Grain–Producing Areas in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, October.
    11. Chimaliro, Aubrey Victor, 2018. "Analysis of main determinants of soya bean price volatility in Malawi," Research Theses 334743, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    12. Jennifer Clapp & S. Ryan Isakson & Oane Visser, 2017. "The complex dynamics of agriculture as a financial asset: introduction to symposium," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 34(1), pages 179-183, March.
    13. Emiliano Magrini & Ayca Donmez, 2013. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," JRC Research Reports JRC84138, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Adriana Ruiz-Almeida & Marta G. Rivera-Ferre, 2019. "Internationally-based indicators to measure Agri-food systems sustainability using food sovereignty as a conceptual framework," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1321-1337, December.
    15. Bellemare, Marc F., 2011. "Rising food prices, food price volatility, and political unrest," MPRA Paper 31888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mo, Di & Gupta, Rakesh & Li, Bin & Singh, Tarlok, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of commodity futures volatility: Evidence from Chinese and Indian markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 543-560.
    17. Jennifer Clapp & Sophia Murphy, 2013. "The G20 and Food Security: a Mismatch in Global Governance?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4(2), pages 129-138, May.
    18. Pritee Sharma & Salla Nithyanth Kumar, 0. "The global governance of water, energy, and food nexus: allocation and access for competing demands," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-15.
    19. Pritee Sharma & Salla Nithyanth Kumar, 2020. "The global governance of water, energy, and food nexus: allocation and access for competing demands," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 377-391, June.
    20. Christian Hertrich, 2013. "Asset Allocation Considerations for Pension Insurance Funds," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-658-02167-2, June.

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