IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/chosxx/v30y2015i8p1317-1353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hidden Properties of Irish House Price Vintages

Author

Listed:
  • David Gray

Abstract

Using spectral analysis, prices of two Irish house vintages are investigated for hidden periodicities. What emerges is a major periodicity consistent with an Irish business cycle. A further hidden intermediate cycle in second-hand housing, that is common to all areas of Eire but featured not nearly so prominently in new housing, is posited to be related to life events and space stress. By revisiting the housing market more often, the repeat buyer injects additional volatility in house prices. It is proposed that housing policy should be directed at reducing the number of repeat buyers as a means of deflating property bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • David Gray, 2015. "Hidden Properties of Irish House Price Vintages," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1317-1353, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:chosxx:v:30:y:2015:i:8:p:1317-1353
    DOI: 10.1080/02673037.2015.1021766
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02673037.2015.1021766
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02673037.2015.1021766?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Bruhl & Colin Lizieri, 1993. "Centralism vs Federalism: implications for regional diversification," ERES eres1993_107, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Levy, Daniel, 1994. "Output, Capital, and Labor in the Short, and Long-Run," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 946-960.
    3. Oikarinen, Elias, 2005. "The Diffusion of Housing Price Movements from Centre to Surrounding Areas," Discussion Papers 979, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Hon‐Chung Hui, 2011. "Cycles in landed and non‐landed housing sub‐markets in Malaysia," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 144-154, May.
    5. Walter Dolde & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 1997. "Temporal and Spatial Information Diffusion in Real Estate Price Changes and Variances," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 539-565, December.
    6. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2009. "Do New Economic Geography agglomeration shadows underlie current population dynamics across the urban hierarchy?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 445-466, June.
    7. Paul Cheshire & G. Carbonaro, 1996. "Urban Economic Growth in Europe: Testing Theory and Policy Prescriptions," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(7), pages 1111-1128, August.
    8. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    9. Pakko, Michael R, 2000. "The Cyclical Relationship between Output and Prices: An Analysis in the Frequency Domain," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 382-399, August.
    10. Colin Jones & Chris Leishman, 2006. "Spatial Dynamics of the Housing Market: An Interurban Perspective," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 43(7), pages 1041-1059, June.
    11. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
    12. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Stephen E. Roulac & Waldo L. Born, 1999. "Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 7-68.
    13. Cook, Steven, 2005. "Regional house price behaviour in the UK: application of a joint testing procedure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 611-621.
    14. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Comovements among U.S. state housing prices: Evidence from fractional cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 936-942.
    15. Song Shi & Martin Young & Bob Hargreaves, 2009. "The ripple effect of local house price movements in New Zealand," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 1-24, April.
    16. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1985. "A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(10), pages 1369-1391, October.
    17. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "Investigating regional house price convergence in the United States: Evidence from a pair-wise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2369-2376.
    18. R Dunn, 1983. "Spectral Analysis and Distributed Lags in Geographical Studies of Local Unemployment: 1. Spectral and Cross-Spectral Analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 15(7), pages 969-985, July.
    19. Changha Jin & Terry V. Grissom, 2008. "Forecasting Dynamic Investment Timing under the Cyclic Behavior in Real Estate," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 105-125.
    20. Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert & Mark Partridge, 2011. "Urban Footprints in Rural Canada: Employment Spillovers by City Size," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 239-260.
    21. Bastiaan De Goei & Martijn Burger & Frank Van Oort & Michael Kitson, 2010. "Functional Polycentrism and Urban Network Development in the Greater South East, United Kingdom: Evidence from Commuting Patterns, 1981-2001," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1149-1170.
    22. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 2, pages 9-45, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Patrick J. Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2008. "Big City Difference? Another Look at Factors Driving House Prices," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 157-177, November.
    24. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    25. Peijie Wang, 2003. "Cycles and Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 22-42.
    26. David Gray, 2012. "District House Price Movements in England and Wales 1997–2007: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(7), pages 1411-1434, May.
    27. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    28. Peijie Wang, 2003. "A Frequency Domain Analysis of Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 25(3), pages 325-346.
    29. Narisra Limtanakool & Martin Dijst & Tim Schwanen, 2007. "A Theoretical Framework and Methodology for Characterising National Urban Systems on the Basis of Flows of People: Empirical Evidence for France and Germany," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(11), pages 2123-2145, October.
    30. Kim, Young Se & Rous, Jeffrey J., 2012. "House price convergence: Evidence from US state and metropolitan area panels," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 169-186.
    31. Kim Hiang Liow, 2007. "Cycles and common cycles in real estate markets," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 287-305, July.
    32. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    33. Mitch Renkow & Dale Hoover, 2000. "Commuting, Migration, and Rural‐Urban Population Dynamics," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 261-287, May.
    34. Narisra Limtanakool & Tim Schwanen & Martin Dijst, 2009. "Developments in the Dutch Urban System on the Basis of Flows," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 179-196.
    35. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Se Chien, 2011. "Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2029-2047, August.
    36. Colin Jones, 2002. "The Definition of Housing Market Areas and Strategic Planning," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 39(3), pages 549-564, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Yunlong & Hu, Jinxing & Boelhouwer, Peter J., 2016. "Spatial interrelations of Chinese housing markets: Spatial causality, convergence and diffusion," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 103-117.
    2. James E. Payne & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "Time‐varying connectedness of metropolitan housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 470-502, March.
    3. David Gray & Caroline Elliott, 2015. "Are prices of New dwellings different? A spectral analysis of UK property vintages," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 993860-9938, December.
    4. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    6. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Shu-Hen, 2019. "Exuberance and spillovers in housing markets: Evidence from first- and second-tier cities in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-86.
    7. Hernán Enríquez Sierra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Antonio Avendaño Arosemena, 2015. "Relaciones regionales en los precios de vivienda nueva en Colombia," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 25-47, June.
    8. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    9. David Gray, 2018. "An application of two non-parametric techniques to the prices of British dwellings: An examination of cyclicality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(10), pages 2286-2299, August.
    10. Jin Hu & Xuelei Xiong & Yuanyuan Cai & Feng Yuan, 2020. "The Ripple Effect and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Intra-Urban Housing Prices at the Submarket Level in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    11. Dominik Blatt & Kausik Chaudhuri & Hans Manner, 2021. "Spillover in the UK Housing Market," Graz Economics Papers 2021-13, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    12. Yuanyuan Cai & Yingming Zhu & Marco Helbich, 2022. "Club convergence of regional housing prices in China: evidence from 70 major Cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 69(1), pages 33-55, August.
    13. Wonseok Seo & LeeYoung Kim, 2020. "Investigating the Ripple Effect through the Relationship between Housing Markets and Residential Migration in Seoul, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, February.
    14. Shu-hen Chiang, 2014. "Housing Markets in China and Policy Implications: Comovement or Ripple Effect," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(6), pages 103-120, November.
    15. Eleni Kyriazakou & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "A nonlinear pairwise approach for the convergence of UK regional house prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 467-481, April.
    16. Ming-Chu Chiang & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Ripple effect and contagious effect in the US regional housing markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 55-82, January.
    17. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2019. "Property heterogeneity and convergence club formation among local house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    18. Ming-Chu Chiang & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Ripple effect and contagious effect in the US regional housing markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 55-82, January.
    19. Geoffrey Meen, 2016. "Spatial housing economics: A survey," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(10), pages 1987-2003, August.
    20. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2013. "Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect in Malaysia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 895-922, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:chosxx:v:30:y:2015:i:8:p:1317-1353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/chos20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.