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District House Price Movements in England and Wales 1997–2007: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Approach

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  • David Gray

Abstract

Using exploratory spatial data analysis and house price data from local authority districts in England and Wales, this article considers whether a regional ripple effect can be tracked at the district level. Although spatial house price variation has been explored at a sub-regional level, this is possibly the first paper to attempt to track house price spillover between districts on a national basis. High- and low-growth clusters of areas are traced. It is concluded that spatial spillover of house price growth is unlikely to be based on interlocked markets bonded by commuting or migration alone; information flows and expectations are likely to reinforce interdistrict transmission. Specifically, house price spillover north of the East Midlands appears much more rapid than would be consistent with a ‘ripple’, suggesting that there is some support for undertaking British housing market analysis on a spatially segmented basis, even at a regional level.

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  • David Gray, 2012. "District House Price Movements in England and Wales 1997–2007: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(7), pages 1411-1434, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:49:y:2012:i:7:p:1411-1434
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098011417020
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ling Zhang & He Wang & Yan Song & Haizhen Wen, 2019. "Spatial Spillover of House Prices: An Empirical Study of the Yangtze Delta Urban Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Dominik Blatt & Kausik Chaudhuri & Hans Manner, 2021. "Spillover in the UK Housing Market," Graz Economics Papers 2021-13, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    5. Katharina Pijnenburg, 2013. "The Spatial Dimension of US House Price Developments," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1270, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Hongjie Wei & Yan Sun, 2017. "Heteroskedasticity-robust semi-parametric GMM estimation of a spatial model with space-varying coefficients," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 113-128, January.
    7. David Gray & Caroline Elliott, 2015. "Are prices of New dwellings different? A spectral analysis of UK property vintages," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 993860-9938, December.
    8. Yu, Qing & Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Do local governments capitalise on the spillover effect in the housing market? Quasi-experimental evidence from house purchase restrictions in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Cipollini, Andrea & Parla, Fabio, 2020. "Housing market shocks in italy: A GVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Xu, Xiaoyue & Mi, Anran & Li, Xiuting & Li, Xuerong & Dong, Jichang, 2024. "Bad news travels fast: Network analysis of the Chinese housing market connectivity," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. David Gray, 2018. "An application of two non-parametric techniques to the prices of British dwellings: An examination of cyclicality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(10), pages 2286-2299, August.
    12. Bin Chi & Adam Dennett & Thomas Oléron-Evans & Robin Morphet, 2021. "Shedding new light on residential property price variation in England: A multi-scale exploration," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(7), pages 1895-1911, September.
    13. Hualin Xie & Guiying Liu & Qu Liu & Peng Wang, 2014. "Analysis of Spatial Disparities and Driving Factors of Energy Consumption Change in China Based on Spatial Statistics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-17, April.
    14. Katharina Pijnenburg, 2017. "The spatial dimension of US house prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(2), pages 466-481, February.
    15. David Gray, 2015. "Hidden Properties of Irish House Price Vintages," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1317-1353, November.
    16. Katharina Pijnenburg, 2014. "The Spatial Dimension of US House Price Developments," ERSA conference papers ersa14p127, European Regional Science Association.
    17. James E. Payne & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "Time‐varying connectedness of metropolitan housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 470-502, March.
    18. Chen, Jia & Shin, Yongcheol & Zheng, Chaowen, 2022. "Estimation and inference in heterogeneous spatial panels with a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 55-79.
    19. Crispin Cooper & Scott Orford & Chris Webster & Christopher B Jones, 2013. "Exploring the Ripple Effect and Spatial Volatility in House Prices in England and Wales: Regressing Interaction Domain Cross-Correlations against Reactive Statistics," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 40(5), pages 763-782, October.
    20. Hualin Xie & Zhifei Liu & Peng Wang & Guiying Liu & Fucai Lu, 2013. "Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.

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