IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jpropr/v26y2009i1p1-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The ripple effect of local house price movements in New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Song Shi
  • Martin Young
  • Bob Hargreaves

Abstract

Utilising a selection of 10 urban area data sets in New Zealand for the period 1994--2004, we examine local house price co‐movements by using various house price indexing approaches, at a monthly level. Applying the Granger causality test based on a vector error correction model (VECM), where seasonality is considered by using seasonal dummy variables, we found in the long run that the ripple effect is most likely constrained within regions. There is little evidence to suggest that the ripple effect will spread nationally between main regional centres. The results support the theory that the ripple effect is likely to be caused by a region’s internal economic factors rather than migration and spatial arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Song Shi & Martin Young & Bob Hargreaves, 2009. "The ripple effect of local house price movements in New Zealand," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 1-24, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:26:y:2009:i:1:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.1080/09599910903289880
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09599910903289880
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09599910903289880?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
    3. Carol Alexander & Michael Barrow, 1994. "Seasonality and Cointegration of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(10), pages 1667-1689, December.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 971, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Clapp, John M & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1992. "Estimating Price Trends for Residential Property: A Comparison of Repeat Sales and Assessed Value Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 357-374, December.
    6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
    7. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Sun, Jian, 2006. "A simple alternative house price index method," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-97, March.
    8. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Is there long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK?," Working Papers 05_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Franses, P. H., 1990. "Testing For Seasonal Unit Roots In Monthly Data," Econometric Institute Archives 272393, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    11. Eric Clapham & Peter Englund & John M. Quigley & Christian L. Redfearn, 2006. "Revisiting the Past and Settling the Score: Index Revision for House Price Derivatives," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 275-302, June.
    12. Bruno Giussani & George Hadjimatheou, 1991. "Modeling Regional House Prices In The United Kingdom," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 201-219, April.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    14. Gatzlaff Dean H. & Ling David C., 1994. "Measuring Changes in Local House Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Alternative Methodologies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 221-244, March.
    15. Lok Ho & Yue Ma & Donald Haurin, 2008. "Domino Effects Within a Housing Market: The Transmission of House Price Changes Across Quality Tiers," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 299-316, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Shi, Song & Ho Tang, Edward Chi, 2013. "Commodity house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 875-887.
    2. Leeyoung Kim & Wonseok Seo, 2021. "Micro-Analysis of Price Spillover Effect among Regional Housing Submarkets in Korea: Evidence from the Seoul Metropolitan Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Ling Zhang & He Wang & Yan Song & Haizhen Wen, 2019. "Spatial Spillover of House Prices: An Empirical Study of the Yangtze Delta Urban Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Jin Hu & Xuelei Xiong & Yuanyuan Cai & Feng Yuan, 2020. "The Ripple Effect and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Intra-Urban Housing Prices at the Submarket Level in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Feng Lan & Chengcai Jiao & Guoying Deng & Huili Da, 2021. "Urban agglomeration, housing price, and space–time spillover effect—Empirical evidences based on data from hundreds of cities in China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 898-919, June.
    6. Geoffrey Meen, 2016. "Spatial housing economics: A survey," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(10), pages 1987-2003, August.
    7. Feixue Huang & Cheng Li & Yanxi Li, 2010. "Ripple Effect of Housing Prices among Chinese Deputy Provincial Cities Based on an Alternative Approach," International Journal of Business Administration, International Journal of Business Administration, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(1), pages 19-24, November.
    8. Cynthia Fan Yang, 2021. "Common factors and spatial dependence: an application to US house prices," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 14-50, January.
    9. Huayi Yu, 2015. "The spillovers and heterogeneous responses of housing prices: a GVAR analysis of China's 35 major cities," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 535-558, October.
    10. David Gray, 2018. "An application of two non-parametric techniques to the prices of British dwellings: An examination of cyclicality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(10), pages 2286-2299, August.
    11. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2013. "Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect in Malaysia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 895-922, April.
    12. David Gray, 2015. "Hidden Properties of Irish House Price Vintages," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1317-1353, November.
    13. Wonseok Seo & LeeYoung Kim, 2020. "Investigating the Ripple Effect through the Relationship between Housing Markets and Residential Migration in Seoul, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, February.
    14. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    15. Li Xiangfei & Han Hongli & Sun Minghan, 2020. "Localized or Regional? Urban Housing Policy Spillover in China’s Urban Agglomerations 2010–2018," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 325-345, August.
    16. David Gray, 2021. "A simple measure of beta-convergence revisited," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(12), pages 2569-2583, September.
    17. Crispin Cooper & Scott Orford & Chris Webster & Christopher B Jones, 2013. "Exploring the Ripple Effect and Spatial Volatility in House Prices in England and Wales: Regressing Interaction Domain Cross-Correlations against Reactive Statistics," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 40(5), pages 763-782, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Leatham, David J. & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Cointegration Analysis of Regional House Prices in U.S," 2007 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 4-5, 2007, St. Louis, Missouri 48138, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Song Shi & Martin Young & Bob Hargreaves, 2010. "House Price-Volume Dynamics: Evidence from 12 Cities in New Zealand," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 32(1), pages 75-100.
    3. Shi, Song & Young, Martin & Hargreaves, Bob, 2009. "Issues in measuring a monthly house price index in New Zealand," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 336-350, December.
    4. Wang, Ferdinand T. & Zorn, Peter M., 1997. "Estimating House Price Growth with Repeat Sales Data: What's the Aim of the Game?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 93-118, June.
    5. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Shi, Song & Ho Tang, Edward Chi, 2013. "Commodity house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 875-887.
    6. Claudio Borio & Øyvind Eitrheim & Marc Flandreau & Clemens Jobst & Jan F Qvigstad & Ryland Thomas, 2022. "Historical monetary and financial statistics for policymakers: towards a unified framework," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 127.
    7. Steven C. Bourassa & Martin Hoesli & Donato Scognamiglio & Philippe Sormani, 2008. "Constant-Quality House Price Indexes for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(IV), pages 561-575, December.
    8. Carini Manuela & Ciuna Marina & De Ruggiero Manuela & Salvo Francesca & Simonotti Marco, 2017. "Repeat Assessed Values Model for Housing Price Index," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(4), pages 25-39, December.
    9. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Sun, Jian, 2006. "A simple alternative house price index method," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-97, March.
    10. Nguyen, Tien-Trung & Wu, Yang-Che & Ke, Mei-Chu & Liao, Tung Liang, 2022. "Can direct government intervention save the stock market?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 271-284.
    11. Gebre-Mariam, Yohannes Kebede, 2011. "Testing for unit roots, causality, cointegration, and efficiency: The case of the northwest US natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3489-3500.
    12. Mauricio, Jose Alberto, 2006. "Exact maximum likelihood estimation of partially nonstationary vector ARMA models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(12), pages 3644-3662, August.
    13. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    14. Martin T. Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Pierre L. Siklos & Christoph Sulewski, 2018. "Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension – Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896," CQE Working Papers 7618, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    15. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    16. Denis Conniffe & David Duffy, 1999. "Irish House Price Indices — Methodological Issues," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 403-423.
    17. Mei-Se Chien, 2013. "The Non-linear Ripple Effect of Housing Prices in Taiwan: A Smooth Transition Regressive Model," ERES eres2013_51, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    18. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    19. Hasanli, Mübariz, 2024. "Re-examining crude oil and natural gas price relationship: Evidence from time-varying regime-switching models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Tswei, Keshin, 2013. "Is transaction price more value relevant compared to accounting information? An investigation of a time-series approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1062-1078.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:26:y:2009:i:1:p:1-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJPR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.