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Club convergence of regional housing prices in China: evidence from 70 major Cities

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  • Yuanyuan Cai

    (Nanjing University of Science and Technology
    Utrecht University)

  • Yingming Zhu

    (Nanjing University of Science and Technology)

  • Marco Helbich

    (Utrecht University)

Abstract

House prices in China have increased greatly in recent decades, and the dynamics seem to vary across cities. It is rational to assume that urban housing prices converge to different equilibria and form club convergence (i.e., subgroups). Empirical evidence on the existence of club convergence is limited, however, as is evidence on the underlying mechanisms. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to 1) detect club convergence in housing prices across Chinese regions over the period 2006–17 and 2) examine the determinants influencing club formation. A log t test in combination with a clustering algorithm was used to assess club formation. The results showed that regional housing prices face heterogeneous dynamics, providing some evidence of housing market segmentation. Four convergence clubs of Chinese regions with different convergence levels were identified. Ordered logit model showed that population growth, income, and housing regulation are among the drivers of club formation. The results also indicated that being in a different Chinese city-tier and differences in urban healthcare affect housing market club membership. The findings are supportive for policymakers to coordinate balanced regional housing development across China.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanyuan Cai & Yingming Zhu & Marco Helbich, 2022. "Club convergence of regional housing prices in China: evidence from 70 major Cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 69(1), pages 33-55, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:69:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-021-01107-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-021-01107-5
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    Cited by:

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    2. Xiaoguang Liu & Jian Yu & Tsun se Cheong & Michal Wojewodzki, 2022. "Transitional Dynamics and Spatial Convergence of House-Price-to-Income Ratio in Urban China," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 979-989.
    3. Umut Unal & Bernd Hayo & Isil Erol, 2022. "Housing Market Convergence: Evidence from Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202244, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Xiaoguang Liu & Jian Yu & Tsun Se Cheong & Michal Wojewodzki, 2022. "The Future Evolution of Housing Price-to-Income Ratio in 171 Chinese Cities," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 23(1), pages 159-196, May.
    5. Belloc, Ignacio, 2024. "Family house prices in the US: Convergence clubs by county (1975-2022)," MPRA Paper 121487, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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