IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/5615.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Too little too late : welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Skoufias, Emmanuel
  • Essama-Nssah, B.
  • Katayama, Roy S.

Abstract

The authors use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impact of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. In particular, they consider two shocks: (i) a delay in the onset of monsoon and (ii) a significant shortfall in the amount of rain in the 90 day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, the analysis finds that a delay in the monsoon onset does not have a significant impact on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Rice farm households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks at the expense of lower nonfood expenditures per capita. The authors use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the welfare impact of this type of shock. Access to credit and public works projects in communities were among the programs with the strongest moderating effects. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Skoufias, Emmanuel & Essama-Nssah, B. & Katayama, Roy S., 2011. "Too little too late : welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5615, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5615
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/03/29/000158349_20110329092900/Rendered/PDF/WPS5615.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    2. Hanan G. Jacoby & Emmanuel Skoufias, 1997. "Risk, Financial Markets, and Human Capital in a Developing Country," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(3), pages 311-335.
    3. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
    4. Quisumbing, Agnes R. & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2003. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty," FCND briefs 155, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Pitt, Mark M & Rosenzweig, Mark R & Gibbons, Donna M, 1993. "The Determinants and Consequences of the Placement of Government Programs in Indonesia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(3), pages 319-348, September.
    6. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2003. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty: a synthesis of the evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico, and Russia," FCND discussion papers 155, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Sumarto, Sudarno & Suryahadi, Asep & Pritchett, Lant, 2003. "Safety Nets or Safety Ropes? Dynamic Benefit Incidence of Two Crisis Programs in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1257-1277, July.
    8. Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 29138, The World Bank.
    9. Walter Falcon & Rosamond Naylor & Whitney Smith & Marshall Burke & Ellen McCullough, 2004. "Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 355-377.
    10. Neil Adger, W., 1999. "Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-269, February.
    11. Rosamond Naylor & Walter Falcon & Nikolas Wada & Daniel Rochberg, 2002. "Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 75-91.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Publications - Reports 13039, The World Bank Group.
    2. Deressa, Temesgen T. & Hassan, Rashid M. & Ringler, Claudia, 2009. "Assessing household vulnerability to climate change: The case of farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 935, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Kurosaki, Takashi & 黒崎, 卓, 2010. "Targeting the Vulnerable and the Choice of Vulnerability Measures: Review and Application to Pakistan," PRIMCED Discussion Paper Series 1, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Martina Celidoni, 2013. "Vulnerability to poverty: an empirical comparison of alternative measures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1493-1506, April.
    5. Baiyegunhi, L.J.S. & Fraser, Gavin C.G., 2010. "Determinants of Household Poverty Dynamics in Rural Regions of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 97078, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    6. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Climate change and vulnerability to poverty: an empirical investigation in rural Indonesia," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber & Guanghua Wan (ed.), The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 5, pages 118-146, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth, 2009. "Estimating Households Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks: A Novel Method Applied in Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1222-1234, July.
    8. Hazel Jean Malapit & Jade Eric Redoblado & Deanna Margarett Cabungcal-Dolor & Jasmin Suministrado, 2006. "Labor Supply Responses to Adverse Shocks under Credit Constraints: Evidence from Bukidnon, Philippines," Working Papers PMMA 2006-15, PEP-PMMA.
    9. Baquie,Sandra & Fuje,Habtamu Neda, 2020. "Vulnerability to Poverty Following Extreme Weather Events in Malawi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9435, The World Bank.
    10. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott & Pramila Krishnan & Tassew Woldehanna, 2007. "Collective action and vulnerability: Burial societies in rural Ethiopia," Economics Series Working Papers GPRG-WPS-076, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Vinha, Katja & Conroy, Hector V., 2011. "The impacts of climate variability on welfare in rural Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5555, The World Bank.
    12. Behrman, Jere R., 2010. "Investment in Education Inputs and Incentives," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4883-4975, Elsevier.
    13. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
    14. Romano, Donato & Carraro, Alessandro, 2015. "Price Shocks, Vulnerability and Food and Nutrition Security among Rural and Urban Households in Tanzania," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207281, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    15. Denis Cogneau & Rémi Jedwab, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Child Outcomes: The 1990 Cocoa Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 507-534.
    16. Vakis, Renos & Kruger, Diana & Mason, Andrew D., 2004. "Shocks and coffee : lessons from Nicaragua," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 30164, The World Bank.
    17. Isaac B. Oluwatayo, 2004. "Income Risk and Welfare Status of Rural Households in Nigeria: Ekiti State as a Test Case," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-61, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Jonathan Colmer, 2013. "Climate Variability, Child Labour and Schooling: Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margin," GRI Working Papers 132, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    19. Francesca Marchetta & David E Sahn & Luca Tiberti, 2019. "The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1203-1227.
    20. Dorosh, Paul A. & Smith, Lisa C. & del Ninno, Carlo, 2003. "Public policy, food markets, and household coping strategies in Bangladesh," FCND briefs 156, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Science of Climate Change; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Housing&Human Habitats; Rural Poverty Reduction; Regional Economic Development;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5615. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.