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Too little too late : welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Skoufias, Emmanuel
  • Essama-Nssah, B.
  • Katayama, Roy S.

Abstract

The authors use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impact of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. In particular, they consider two shocks: (i) a delay in the onset of monsoon and (ii) a significant shortfall in the amount of rain in the 90 day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, the analysis finds that a delay in the monsoon onset does not have a significant impact on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Rice farm households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks at the expense of lower nonfood expenditures per capita. The authors use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the welfare impact of this type of shock. Access to credit and public works projects in communities were among the programs with the strongest moderating effects. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Skoufias, Emmanuel & Essama-Nssah, B. & Katayama, Roy S., 2011. "Too little too late : welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5615, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5615
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
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    3. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
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    5. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2004. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty : a synthesis of the evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico and Russia," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 29141, The World Bank.
    6. Sumarto, Sudarno & Suryahadi, Asep & Pritchett, Lant, 2003. "Safety Nets or Safety Ropes? Dynamic Benefit Incidence of Two Crisis Programs in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1257-1277, July.
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    Keywords

    Science of Climate Change; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Housing&Human Habitats; Rural Poverty Reduction; Regional Economic Development;
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