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Nonlinear model for Panamax secondhand ship

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  • Ching-Chih Chang
  • Tin-Chia Lai

Abstract

Hitherto, scholarly analyses of secondhand ship prices in the international dry bulk market have focused on Capesize. This article adopts a nonlinear model based on the well-known Gaussian distribution theory, with a view to examine Panamax activity from January 1996 to December 2007. According to X-11 and Phase Average Trend (PAT) analysis, three whole cycles were discernible during the study period. Three nonlinear prediction models are developed, which are commensurate with these findings. Evidently, the empirical results match the inflated predictions of the models, with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) falling below 20%.

Suggested Citation

  • Ching-Chih Chang & Tin-Chia Lai, 2011. "Nonlinear model for Panamax secondhand ship," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(17), pages 2193-2198.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:17:p:2193-2198
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840903120670
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gauri, Varun, 2013. "Redressing Grievances and Complaints Regarding Basic Service Delivery," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-119.

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