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Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Kajal Lahiri
  • Herman O. Stekler
  • Wenxiong Yao
  • Peg Young

Abstract

We develop a monthly output index of the U.S. Transportation sector over 1980:1-2002:4 covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indices for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index matches very well with the annual transportation output figures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The strong cyclical movements in the transportation output appear to be more synchronized with the growth slowdowns rather than full-fledged recessions of the U.S. economy. The index has led the peaks and troughs of the NBER defined growth cycles with an average lead-time of 5 months at peaks and 7 months at troughs with no false signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:03-12
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    File URL: http://www.albany.edu/~klahiri/BTSpaper10_8.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
    2. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "The predictive power of an experimental transportation output index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 149-152.
    3. Yao, Vincent W. & Solboda, Brian, 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208159, Transportation Research Forum.
    4. Jason Angelopoulos, 2017. "Creating and assessing composite indicators: Dynamic applications for the port industry and seaborne trade," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 126-159, March.
    5. Roumen Vesselinov, 2012. "New Composite Indicators for Bulgarian Business Cycle," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 5(2), pages 101-111, August.
    6. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 595-600.
    7. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    8. Yao, Vincent W. & Sloboda, Brian W., 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(2).
    9. Yetkiner, Hakan & Beyzatlar, Mehmet Aldonat, 2020. "The Granger-causality between wealth and transportation: A panel data approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 19-25.
    10. Wanyu Yang & Xuebing Ouyang & Tiezhu Li, 2023. "Research on the Regional Transport Development Index and Its Application in Decision Making and Sustainable Development of Transport Services: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transportation Sector; Freight and Passenger Movements; Growth Cycles; Business Cycles; Phase Average Trend; HP Filter; U.S. Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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