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Econometric Modelling of Second-hand Ship Prices

Author

Listed:
  • S D Tsolakis

    (Center for Maritime Economics and Logistics, Erasmus University Rotterdam. Burg. Oudlaan 50, 3062 PA Rotterdam, The Netherlands.)

  • C Cridland

    (Braemar Seascope, London, UK.)

  • H E Haralambides

    (Center for Maritime Economics and Logistics, Erasmus University Rotterdam. Burg. Oudlaan 50, 3062 PA Rotterdam, The Netherlands.)

Abstract

This paper provides an econometric analysis of second-hand ship prices. It starts with a presentation of previous attempts to model second-hand ship prices and their shortcomings. After that a theoretical Error Correction Model is developed making up for these shortcomings. Its results are analysed and compared to those of an atheoretical Autoregressive Model within the context of Econometric Business Cycle Research. This allows the model to describe and forecast cycles and to evaluate policies. It is demonstrated that second-hand prices of different ship sizes/segments react differently to changes in the market variables that determine them. This provides support for performing analysis at a disaggregated rather than an aggregated level. Newbuilding and timecharter rates have the greatest effect of all variables on the determination of second-hand prices, in most cases both in the short and the long run. The cost of capital is only significant for bulk carrier owners. The only exception is the Suezmax segment due to its particular characteristics. Finally, it is found that the size of the orderbook, as a percentage of the fleet, has a negative effect on the prices of second-hand vessels only in the long run and only in large and Panamax tankers. Maritime Economics & Logistics (2003) 5, 347–377. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100086

Suggested Citation

  • S D Tsolakis & C Cridland & H E Haralambides, 2003. "Econometric Modelling of Second-hand Ship Prices," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 5(4), pages 347-377, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:5:y:2003:i:4:p:347-377
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ying Kou & Liming Liu & Meifeng Luo, 2014. "Lead-lag relationship between new-building and second-hand ship prices," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 303-327, July.
    2. Zacharias G. Bragoudakis & Stelios Th. Panagiotou & Helen A. Thanopoulou, 2015. "Greek Shipping Earnings and Investment Expenditure: Exploring the Pre & Post "Ordering -Frenzy" Period," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 3-28, july-Dece.
    3. Yang, Zhongzhen & Jiang, Zhenfeng & Notteboom, Theo & Haralambides, Hercules, 2019. "The impact of ship scrapping subsidies on fleet renewal decisions in dry bulk shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 177-189.
    4. Fan, Lixian & Gu, Bingmei & Yin, Jingbo, 2021. "Investment incentive analysis for second-hand vessels," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 215-225.
    5. Kokosalakis, George & Merika, Anna & Triantafyllou, Anna, 2021. "Energy efficiency and emissions control: The response of the second-hand containerships sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. Ingrid van Putten & Emmanuelle Quillérou & Olivier Guyader, 2012. "How constrained? Entry into the French Atlantic fishery through second-hand vessel purchase," Post-Print hal-00815455, HAL.
    7. Pantuso, Giovanni & Fagerholt, Kjetil & Hvattum, Lars Magnus, 2014. "A survey on maritime fleet size and mix problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 341-349.
    8. Ching-Chih Chang & Tin-Chia Lai, 2011. "The nonlinear dynamic process of macroeconomic development by modelling dry bulk shipping market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1655-1663.
    9. Görçün, Ömer Faruk, 2022. "A novel integrated MCDM framework based on Type-2 neutrosophic fuzzy sets (T2NN) for the selection of proper Second-Hand chemical tankers," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    10. Xiwen Bai & Jasmine Siu Lee Lam, 2019. "An integrated analysis of interrelationships within the very large gas carrier (VLGC) shipping market," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(3), pages 372-389, September.
    11. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2007. "Investment timing and trading strategies in the sale and purchase market for ships," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 126-143, January.
    12. Theodore Syriopoulos & Michael Tsatsaronis & Ioannis Karamanos, 2021. "Support Vector Machine Algorithms: An Application to Ship Price Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 55-87, January.
    13. Mo, Jixian & Gao, Ruobin & Fai Yuen, Kum & Bai, Xiwen, 2024. "Predictive analysis of sell-and-purchase shipping market: A PIMSE approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    14. Zacharias G. Bragoudakis & Stelios Panagiotou & Helen Thanopoulou, 2013. "Investment strategy and Greek shipping earnings: exploring the pre & post "ordering-frenzy" period," Working Papers 157, Bank of Greece.
    15. Ching-Chih Chang & Tin-Chia Lai, 2011. "Nonlinear model for Panamax secondhand ship," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(17), pages 2193-2198.
    16. Roar Adland & Haakon Ameln & Eirik A. Børnes, 2020. "Hedging ship price risk using freight derivatives in the drybulk market," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Keun-Sik Park & Young-Joon Seo & A-Rom Kim & Min-Ho Ha, 2018. "Ship Acquisition of Shipping Companies by Sale & Purchase Activities for Sustainable Growth: Exploratory Fuzzy-AHP Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, May.
    18. Heng-Chih Chou & Dar-Hsin Chen, 2019. "The use of technical analysis in sale-and-purchase transactions of secondhand ships," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(2), pages 223-240, June.
    19. Nikolaos D. Geomelos & Evangelos Xideas, 2017. "Econometric estimation of second-hand shipping markets using panel data analysis," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(1), pages 7-21, January-M.
    20. Sinem Celik Girgin & Thanasis Karlis & Hong-Oanh Nguyen, 2018. "A Critical Review of the Literature on Firm-Level Theories on Ship Investment," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
    21. Photis M. Panayides, 2006. "Maritime policy, management and research: role and potential," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 95-105, May.

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