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Anticipated effects of the minimum wage on prices

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  • Sara Lemos

Abstract

There is little empirical evidence on the effect of minimum wage increases on prices, particularly for developing countries. This paper provides estimates of this effect using monthly Brazilian household and firm data over 18 years. As minimum wage increases in Brazil sare large and frequent, they have a potentially important impact on aggregate prices. Rational agents, in anticipation of such price effects, may take minimum wage increases as a signal for future price and wage bargains. We find that the minimum wage raises overall prices not only on the month of the increase, but also in the two months prior to the change as well as after the change.

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  • Sara Lemos, 2006. "Anticipated effects of the minimum wage on prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 325-337.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:3:p:325-337
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500368722
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    2. Subir K. Chakrabarti & Srikant Devaraj & Pankaj C. Patel, 2021. "Minimum wage and restaurant hygiene violations: Evidence from Seattle," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 85-99, January.
    3. Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Ardila, Luz Karine & Gómez, Miguel Ignacio, 2011. "Efecto del cambio del salario mínimo en el precio de las comidas fuera del hogar en Colombia," Chapters, in: López Enciso, Enrique & Ramírez Giraldo, María Teresa (ed.), Formación de precios y salarios en Colombia T.2, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 873-918, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Juli?n Messina & Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano, 2014. "Wage Rigidity and Disinflation in Emerging Countries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 102-133, January.
    5. Sara Lemos, 2008. "A Survey Of The Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 187-212, February.
    6. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2425, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    7. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2425, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    8. Thomas Werner & Friedrich L. Sell, 2015. "Price Effects of the Minimum Wage: A Survey Data Analysis for the German Construction Sector," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 29(3), pages 310-326, September.
    9. Werner, Thomas & Sell, Friedrich L. & Reinisch, David C., 2013. "Price effects of minimum wages: Evidence from the construction sector in East and West Germany," Working Papers in Economics 2013,4, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    10. Gabriel Ulyssea & Miguel N. Foguel, 2006. "Efeitos do Salário Mínimo Sobre o Mercado de Trabalho Brasileiro," Discussion Papers 1168, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    11. Dr. Nickolaos Giovanis, 2018. "Determining Factors of Minimum Wage in the Member States of the OECD," Sumerianz Journal of Business Management and Marketing, Sumerianz Publication, vol. 1(4), pages 93-101, 12-2018.
    12. Ernesto Sheriff, 2010. "Inflationary memory as restrictive factor of the impact of the public expense in the economic growth: lessons from high inflation Latin American countries using an innovative inflationary memory indic," Development Research Working Paper Series 13/2010, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    13. Pablo Blanchard & Paula Carrasco & Rodrigo Ceni & Cecilia Parada & Sofía Santín, 2021. "Distributive and displacement effects of a coordinated wage bargaining scheme," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 21-26, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    14. Beteta, Hugo E. & Bielschowsky, Ricardo & del Castillo, Miguel & Orozco, Roberto & Squeff, Gabriel Coelho, 2022. "A strategy for development with income redistribution: the minimum wage and growth fronts in Mexico," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    15. Dr. Nickolaos Giovanis, 2019. "“Determining Factors of Minimum Wage in the Member States of the OECDâ€," Sumerianz Journal of Business Management and Marketing, Sumerianz Publication, vol. 2(1), pages 6-14, 01-2019.
    16. Hoxha Adriatik, 2010. "Causal relationship between prices and wages: VECM analysis for Germany," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 26, pages 90-106, November.
    17. M. A. Ivanova, 2016. "Analysis of the nature of cause-and-effect relationship between inflation and wage in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 575-584, September.
    18. Gligor Bishev & Tatjana Boshkov, 2015. "Arguments for and Against Retaining Exchange Rate Regime: An Empirical Analysis for Republic of Macedonia," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(8), pages 1004-1013, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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