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Stationary data and the effect of the minimum wage on teenage employment

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  • Jaehwan Park
  • Ronald Ratti

Abstract

One of the interesting features of time series work on the effect of the minimum wage is that the problem of possible spurious regressions when data may be non-stationary has been largely ignored. It is shown that this is potentially a serious problem. It is found that although the teenage employment to population ratio is stationary, the 'independent' variables in time series regression equations are non-stationary. Substitution of the stationary first differences of the independent variables in the regression equations for their levels, is found to greatly undermine the estimated influence of the minimum wage on the employment-to-population ratio. Estimates of the effect of the minimum wage are found to be only marginally more significant when seasonal differencing of the dependent variable and an ARCH estimation technique are employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaehwan Park & Ronald Ratti, 1998. "Stationary data and the effect of the minimum wage on teenage employment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 435-440.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:4:p:435-440
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498325705
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alison J. Wellington, 1991. "Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Employment Status of Youths: An Update," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 26(1), pages 27-46.
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    6. Charles Brown & Curtis Gilroy & Andrew Kohen, 1983. "Time-Series Evidence of the Effect of the Minimum Wage on Youth Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(1), pages 3-31.
    7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara Lemos, 2006. "Anticipated effects of the minimum wage on prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 325-337.
    2. Wang‐Sheng Lee & Sandy Suardi, 2011. "Minimum Wages and Employment: Reconsidering the Use of a Time Series Approach as an Evaluation Tool," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 49(Supplemen), pages 376-401, July.
    3. Chuang, Yih-Chyi, 2006. "The Effect of Minimum Wage on Youth Employment and Unemployment in Taiwan," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 47(2), pages 155-167, December.
    4. Christian Ragacs, 2007. "On the empirics of minimum wages and employment: evidence for the Austrian industry," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 61-64.
    5. Peter Sunley & Ron Martin, 2000. "The Geographies of the National Minimum Wage," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(10), pages 1735-1758, October.
    6. Artur Sikora, 2021. "The minimum wage in Poland and its connection to unemployment: Evaluating causality," Zeszyty Naukowe Małopolskiej Wyższej Szkoły Ekonomicznej w Tarnowie / The Malopolska School of Economics in Tarnow Research Papers Collection, Malopolska School of Economics in Tarnow, vol. 50(2), pages 65-77, June.

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