IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v42y2022i11p2041-2052.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of COVID‐19 on the interdependence between US and Chinese oil futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Yongmin Zhang
  • Shusheng Ding
  • Haili Shi

Abstract

The oil futures market plays a vital role in the global financial system, especially after the negative future oil price rose during the COVID‐19 pandemic. This paper investigates the COVID‐19 impact on the interdependence between the US and Chinese oil futures markets by extending the dynamic conditional correlation‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC‐GARCH) models with incorporating COVID‐19 variables and by applying vector autoregression (VAR) models. Our study reveals that the COVID‐19 pandemic enhanced the long‐run correlation between the two oil markets. In contrast, daily changes in pandemic severity had a negative effect on the short‐term transient correlation. Our results show that COVID‐19 changed the one‐direction causality from the US oil market to the Chinese market in the pre‐COVID period to a bidirectional causal relation between the two markets during the COVID period. It strengthened the volatility spillover effect from the Chinese to US markets. These findings are helpful to regulars' monitoring oil supply chain risk and investors' cross‐market hedging of spillover risks from a systematic risk perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Haili Shi, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the interdependence between US and Chinese oil futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2041-2052, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:42:y:2022:i:11:p:2041-2052
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22326
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22326
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22326?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Min & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2021. "Capturing the dynamics of the China crude oil futures: Markov switching, co-movement, and volatility forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Eric Scheffel, 2018. "Policy impact on volatility dynamics in commodity futures markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1227-1245, October.
    3. Borgards, Oliver & Czudaj, Robert L. & Hoang, Thi Hong Van, 2021. "Price overreactions in the commodity futures market: An intraday analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic impact," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Xindan Li & Bing Zhang, 2008. "Price linkages between Chinese and world copper futures markets," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(3), pages 451-461, September.
    5. Ding, Shusheng & Zhang, Yongmin, 2020. "Cross market predictions for commodity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 455-462.
    6. Zhang, Yongmin & Mao, Jiaying, 2022. "COVID-19′s impact on the spillover effect across the Chinese and U.S. stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    7. Webb, Robert I. & Ryu, Doojin & Ryu, Doowon & Han, Joongho, 2016. "The price impact of futures trades and their intraday seasonality," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 80-98.
    8. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "How important are common factors in driving non-fuel commodity prices? A dynamic factor analysis," Working Paper Series 1072, European Central Bank.
    9. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    10. Ron Alquist & Reinhard Ellwanger & Jianjian Jin, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1212-1230, August.
    11. Sun, Yanpeng & Mirza, Nawazish & Qadeer, Abdul & Hsueh, Hsin-Pei, 2021. "Connectedness between oil and agricultural commodity prices during tranquil and volatile period. Is crude oil a victim indeed?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Ding, Shusheng & Cui, Tianxiang & Zheng, Dandan & Du, Min, 2021. "The effects of commodity financialization on commodity market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding, 2018. "Return and volatility co-movement in commodity futures markets: the effects of liquidity risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 1471-1486, September.
    14. Michael Melvin & Jahangir Sultan, 1990. "South African political unrest, oil prices, and the time varying risk premium in the gold futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 103-111, April.
    15. Wonho Song & Doojin Ryu & Robert I. Webb, 2018. "Volatility dynamics under an endogenous Markov-switching framework: a cross-market approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 1559-1571, September.
    16. G. Geoffrey Booth & Paul Brockman & Yiuman Tse, 1998. "The relationship between US and Canadian wheat futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 73-80.
    17. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2020. "Return and volatility transmission between China's and international crude oil futures markets: A first look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 860-884, June.
    18. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham & Goh, Mark & Zou, Huiwen, 2022. "Risk spillovers and time-varying links between international oil and China’s commodity futures markets: Fresh evidence from the higher-order moments," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    19. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    20. Lian, Ziying & Cai, Jun & Webb, Robert I., 2020. "Oil stocks, risk factors, and tail behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    21. Wang, Ziwei & Li, Youwei & He, Feng, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    22. Wu, Weiou & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Vigne, Samuel A., 2017. "Modelling asymmetric conditional dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1137-1149.
    23. Li, Hong & Majerowska, Ewa, 2008. "Testing stock market linkages for Poland and Hungary: A multivariate GARCH approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-266, September.
    24. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 111-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yongmin & Sun, Yiru, 2023. "Did U.S. and Chinese investors respond differently to the exogenous shocks from COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Huzaifa Shamsi, 2024. "Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Assessing Firm Risk, Environmental Commitments, and Information Channels in the wake of COVID-19," IIMA Working Papers WP 2024-01-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    3. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Lin Liu & Ying-Hui Shao, 2023. "Visibility graph analysis of crude oil futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," Papers 2310.18903, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    4. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Li, Haibo & Wang, Jianqiong, 2023. "INE oil futures volatility prediction: Exchange rates or international oil futures volatility?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Zhang, Jiaming & Guo, Songlin & Dou, Bin & Xie, Bingyuan, 2023. "Evidence of the internationalization of China's crude oil futures: Asymmetric linkages to global financial risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    6. Yongmin Zhang & Yiru Sun & Haili Shi & Shusheng Ding & Yingxue Zhao, 2024. "COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war and the connectedness between the U.S. and Chinese agricultural futures markets," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Cui, Jinxin & Alshater, Muneer M. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk spillovers and optimal portfolio strategies in global oil markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yongmin Zhang & Yiru Sun & Haili Shi & Shusheng Ding & Yingxue Zhao, 2024. "COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war and the connectedness between the U.S. and Chinese agricultural futures markets," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Zhang, Yongmin & Ding, Shusheng & Scheffel, Eric M., 2019. "A key determinant of commodity price Co-movement: The role of daily market liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 170-180.
    3. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Meryem Duygun, 2019. "Derivatives pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1471-1485, November.
    4. Zhang, Yongmin & Sun, Yiru, 2023. "Did U.S. and Chinese investors respond differently to the exogenous shocks from COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Cui, Jinxin & Alshater, Muneer M. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk spillovers and optimal portfolio strategies in global oil markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    7. Zhang, Yongmin & Mao, Jiaying, 2022. "COVID-19′s impact on the spillover effect across the Chinese and U.S. stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    8. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2022. "Dynamic correlation between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1798-1849, August.
    9. Zhang, Yongmin & Ding, Shusheng, 2021. "Liquidity effects on price and return co-movements in commodity futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Gong, Xu & Guan, Keqin & Chen, Liqing & Liu, Tangyong & Fu, Chengbo, 2021. "What drives oil prices? — A Markov switching VAR approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Yan, Wan-Lin & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2024. "Connectedness among Chinese climate policy uncertainty, exchange rate, Chinese and international crude oil markets: Insights from time and frequency domain analyses of high order moments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Gaoxiu Qiao & Yangli Cao & Feng Ma & Weiping Li, 2023. "Liquidity and realized covariance forecasting: a hybrid method with model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 437-463, January.
    13. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Julien Chevallier & Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1211-1227, September.
    15. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    16. Fernandez-Diaz, Jose M. & Morley, Bruce, 2019. "Interdependence among agricultural commodity markets, macroeconomic factors, crude oil and commodity index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 174-194.
    17. Doojin Ryu & Doowon Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2021. "The impact of net buying pressure on index options prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 27-45, January.
    18. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    19. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Wali, Muammer & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2020. "Islamic stocks, conventional stocks, and crude oil: Directional volatility spillover analysis in BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    20. Jia, Xiangfu & Liao, Wenting & Zhang, Chengsi, 2022. "Commodity financialization and funding liquidity in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:42:y:2022:i:11:p:2041-2052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.