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Episodic nonstationarity in exchange rates

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  • Christopher Brooks
  • Melvin Hinich

Abstract

We examine a method recently proposed by Hinich and Patterson (mimeo, University of Texas at Austin, 1995) for testing the validity of specifying a GARCH error structure for financial time series data in the context of a set of ten daily Sterling exchange rates. The results demonstrate that there are statistical structures present in the data that cannot be captured by a GARCH model, or any of its variants. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the recent voluminous literature which attempts to model financial asset returns using this family of models.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Brooks & Melvin Hinich, 1998. "Episodic nonstationarity in exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(11), pages 719-722.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:5:y:1998:i:11:p:719-722
    DOI: 10.1080/135048598354203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Martikainen, Teppo & Sarkar, Salil K. & Virtanen, Ilkka & Yli-Olli, Paavo, 1994. "Nonlinear dependence in Finnish stock returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 273-283, April.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hinich Melvin J & Mendes Eduardo M & Stone Lewi, 2005. "Detecting Nonlinearity in Time Series: Surrogate and Bootstrap Approaches," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Kian-Ping Lim & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Melvin J. Hinich, 2009. "The Weak-form Efficiency of Chinese Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 133-163, May.
    3. Vinodh Madhavan & Partha Ray, 2018. "Evolving Efficiency of Dually-Listed Indian Stocks: A Nonlinear Perspective," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 13-35, March.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2005:i:6:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Claudio Bonilla & Jean Sepulveda, 2011. "Stock returns in emerging markets and the use of GARCH models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1321-1325.
    6. Wild, Phillip & Hinich, Melvin J. & Foster, John, 2010. "Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1082-1091, September.
    7. Coronado-Ramírez, Semei L. & Porras-Serrano, Jesús & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2011. "Estructuras no lineales en mercados eficientes: el caso IBEX-35," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio (ed.), Economía: Teoría y Métodos, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 116-129, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
    8. Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2006. "Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-199.
    9. Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Hock-Tsen Wong, 2003. "Weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis, Behavioural Finance and Episodic Transient Dependencies: The Case of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange," Finance 0312012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2005:i:1:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. K.P. Lim & M.J. Hinich & K.S. Liew, 2003. "GARCH Diagnosis with Portmanteau Bicorrelation Test: An Application on the Malaysia's Stock Market," Finance 0307013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Veli YILANCI, 2012. "Detection Of Nonlinear Events In Turkish Stock Market," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(1(19)/ Sp), pages 93-96.
    13. Kian-Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2009. "On the validity of conventional statistical tests given evidence of nonsynchronous trading and nonlinear dynamics in returns generating process: a further note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 649-652.
    14. Erdoğan, Seyfettin & Gedikli, Ayfer & Kırca, Mustafa, 2019. "A note on time-varying causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Turkey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Esra Soyu Yıldırım & Cuma Demirtaş & Munise Ilıkkan Özgür, 2022. "Causality Relationship Between Economic, Financial, Political Risk and Growth: The Case of Turkey," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 165-186, January.
    16. Phillip Wild & Melvin J. Hinich & John Foster, 2008. "The Use of Trimming to Improve the Performance of Tests for Nonlinear Serial Dependence with Application to the Australian National Electricity Market," Discussion Papers Series 367, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    17. Teresa Aparicio & Dulce Saura, 2013. "Do Exchange Rate Series Present General Dependence? Some Results using Recurrence Quantification Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(10), pages 678-686.
    18. Claudio Bonilla & Carlos Maquieira & Rafael Romero-Meza, 2008. "Nonlinear behaviour of emerging market bonds spreads: the Latin American case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(20), pages 2697-2702.
    19. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
    20. Claudia Sanhueza & Dante Contreras & Angela Denis, 2012. "Terremoto y sus efectos sobre el bienestar: un análisis multidimensional," Working Papers 35, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad Diego Portales.
    21. Kian-Ping Lim & Melvin J. Hinich, 2005. "Cross-temporal universality of non-linear dependencies in Asian stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6.
    22. Rafael Romero-Meza & Claudio Bonilla & Melvin Hinich, 2007. "Nonlinear event detection in the Chilean stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 987-991.
    23. Ibrahim Cutcu & Mehmet Vahit Eren, 2017. "Analysis of Exchange Rate-Foreign Trade Relationship with Asymmetric Causality Tests: Sample of Gaziantep," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(10), pages 157-171, October.

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