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Momentum and betting market perceptions of momentum in college football

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  • Steven Salaga
  • Katie M Brown

Abstract

Past research has demonstrated that bettors believe positive momentum carries over from contest to contest. This article examines whether there is any empirical support for this belief by testing for the presence of across-contest momentum effects in college football. We characterize momentum in multiple fashions and after controlling for between-team heterogeneity find no evidence that systematic relationships exist between the degree of momentum a team enters a contest with and the outcome of that contest. From a wagering market perspective, this indicates that there is no statistically significant advantage to betting on teams perceived to possess positive momentum. Our results also suggest that the combination of the opening betting line set by odds makers and the subsequent market movement of that line does not systematically overreact to teams on streaks.

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  • Steven Salaga & Katie M Brown, 2018. "Momentum and betting market perceptions of momentum in college football," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(19), pages 1383-1388, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:25:y:2018:i:19:p:1383-1388
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1420885
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    1. Michael Sinkey & Trevon Logan, 2014. "Does the Hot Hand Drive the Market? Evidence from College Football Betting Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 583-603, September.
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    6. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach & Brad Humphreys, 2011. "Revisting the "Hot Hand" Hypothesis in the NBA Betting Market Using Actual Sportsbook Betting Percentages on Favorites and Underdogs," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 5(2), pages 42-56, July.
    7. Stephanie Parsons & Nicholas Rohde, 2015. "The hot hand fallacy re-examined: new evidence from the English Premier League," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 346-357, January.
    8. Benjamin Leard & Joanne M. Doyle, 2011. "The Effect of Home Advantage, Momentum, and Fighting on Winning in the National Hockey League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(5), pages 538-560, October.
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