IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v7y2011i3n13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Finally, Evidence for a Momentum Effect in the NBA

Author

Listed:
  • Arkes Jeremy

    (Naval Postgraduate School)

  • Martinez Jose

    (Universidad Politecnica de Cartagena)

Abstract

No previous study on momentum in team sports has found any valid evidence for a momentum effect-i.e., an effect of success in the past few games, over and above the effect of team quality. We develop an econometric model to determine if there is a momentum effect in the NBA by examining how success over the past few games leads to a higher probability of winning the next game. The model takes into account the home vs. away strengths of the teams in the current game as well as their opponents in the previous games (to calculate measures of "adjusted success over the past few games"). Thus, success in previous games is adjusted for quality of the wins or losses. In addition, we account for rest days before the current game for both teams. Using data over three NBA seasons (2007-2009), we find strong evidence for a positive momentum effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Arkes Jeremy & Martinez Jose, 2011. "Finally, Evidence for a Momentum Effect in the NBA," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:3:n:13
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1304
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1559-0410.1304?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
    2. Arkes Jeremy, 2010. "Revisiting the Hot Hand Theory with Free Throw Data in a Multivariate Framework," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, January.
    3. C. Sire & S. Redner, 2009. "Understanding baseball team standings and streaks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 473-481, February.
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:5:p:326-334 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Steven Salaga & Katie M Brown, 2018. "Momentum and betting market perceptions of momentum in college football," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(19), pages 1383-1388, November.
    2. Jeremy Arkes, 2013. "Misses in “Hot Hand†Research," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 401-410, August.
    3. Morgulev, Elia, 2023. "Streakiness is not a theory: On “momentums” (hot hands) and their underlying mechanisms," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Fry Michael J. & Shukairy F. Alan, 2012. "Searching for Momentum in the NFL," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Gabel Alan & Redner Sidney, 2012. "Random Walk Picture of Basketball Scoring," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Brian Hill, 2018. "Shadow and Spillover Effects of Competition in NBA Playoffs," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(8), pages 1067-1092, December.
    7. Bucciol, Alessandro & Castagnetti, Alessandro, 2020. "Choking under pressure in archery," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Craig A. Depken II & Matthew Hood & Ernest King, 2017. "Consistency and Momentum in NASCAR," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(6), pages 601-621, August.
    9. Stephanie Parsons & Nicholas Rohde, 2015. "The hot hand fallacy re-examined: new evidence from the English Premier League," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 346-357, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gur Yaari & Gil David, 2012. "“Hot Hand” on Strike: Bowling Data Indicates Correlation to Recent Past Results, Not Causality," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, January.
    2. Andreas Heuer & Oliver Rubner, 2014. "Optimizing the Prediction Process: From Statistical Concepts to the Case Study of Soccer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-9, September.
    3. Gur Yaari & Shmuel Eisenmann, 2011. "The Hot (Invisible?) Hand: Can Time Sequence Patterns of Success/Failure in Sports Be Modeled as Repeated Random Independent Trials?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(10), pages 1-10, October.
    4. Brian Skinner, 2012. "The Problem of Shot Selection in Basketball," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, January.
    5. de Dios Tena, Juan & Forrest, David, 2007. "Within-season dismissal of football coaches: Statistical analysis of causes and consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 362-373, August.
    6. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?," MPRA Paper 47649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jakobsson, Robin & Karlsson, Niklas, 2007. "Testing Market Efficiency in a Fixed Odds Betting Market," Working Papers 2007:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    8. Nicos Zafiris, 2016. "Is There Such A Thing As A Safe Bet ?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 10(1), pages 40-65.
    9. Palomino, Frederic & Renneboog, Luc & Zhang, Chendi, 2009. "Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 368-387, June.
    10. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Andrei Shynkevich, 2022. "Informational efficiency of football transfer market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 1032-1039.
    12. Wen‐Jhan Jane, 2023. "Hot hand or choking under pressure – Evidence from professional basketball," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 223-254, May.
    13. Gabel Alan & Redner Sidney, 2012. "Random Walk Picture of Basketball Scoring," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    14. Brander James A. & Yeung Louisa & Egan Edward J., 2014. "Estimating the effects of age on NHL player performance," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
    16. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2019. "Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer leagues," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 239-246.
    17. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?," Working Papers 548, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Visible (Hot) Hand? Expert Players Bet on the Hot Hand and Win," OSF Preprints sd32u, Center for Open Science.
    19. S Lessmann & M-C Sung & J E V Johnson, 2011. "Towards a methodology for measuring the true degree of efficiency in a speculative market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(12), pages 2120-2132, December.
    20. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James, 2019. "The wisdom of amateur crowds: Evidence from an online community of sports tipsters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1073-1081.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:3:n:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.