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Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Wrathall
  • Rod Falvey
  • Gulasekaran Rajaguru

Abstract

We extend the empirical analysis of hot hands in sports to horse racing, using the winning streaks of a sample of jockeys riding in Australia. Grouping jockeys by strike rate (win percentage), we find evidence of hot hands across almost all strike rates. But considering jockeys individually, only a minority exhibit hot hands. A wagering strategy based on hot hands yields a negative return overall and for most hot hand jockeys, although some do yield a positive return. We conclude that hot hands are present but not ubiquitous and that this is generally recognised in the betting market. JEL Classification: C53, D81, D84

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Wrathall & Rod Falvey & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2020. "Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 45(2), pages 223-239, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:45:y:2020:i:2:p:223-239
    DOI: 10.1177/0312896219883675
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrapping; hot hands; jockeys; thoroughbred horse racing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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