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Efficiency, Profitability, and College Football: do Bettors Overrate the Major Conferences in Interconference Play?

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  • Evan Moore

    (AUM College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences)

  • James Francisco

    (AUM College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences)

Abstract

This article tests the efficient market hypothesis and the profitability of a simple betting strategy in college football. All games are examined that have a point spread for inter-conference matches involving a Power Five/Automatic Qualifying team from September 2003 through January 2016. The tests reject the efficient market hypothesis for these matchups, with a large subset of matches driving this result. The betting strategy evidence suggests it is nonrandom but it is not particularly profitable for the entire sample. However, there is evidence that betting on certain conferences to cover the point spread (win the bet) results in profitable returns over the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Moore & James Francisco, 2019. "Efficiency, Profitability, and College Football: do Bettors Overrate the Major Conferences in Interconference Play?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 159-167, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:47:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11293-019-09616-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-019-09616-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel C. Hickman, 2020. "Efficiency in the madness? examining the betting market for the ncaa men’s basketball tournament," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 611-626, July.

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