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Misses in “Hot Hand†Research

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  • Jeremy Arkes

Abstract

Until recently, no study has found evidence for the “hot hand†in the National Basketball Association. Thus, many researchers have claimed that the hot hand and momentum effects are myths. This article presents simulations that demonstrate how the primary methods for estimating the hot hand effect understate the effect and have a low chance of detecting significance and that the infrequency of the hot hand contributes to the understated estimates and the inability of tests to detect significance. These results suggest that recent research showing a small hot hand effect for free throws is indicative of a much larger hot hand effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Arkes, 2013. "Misses in “Hot Hand†Research," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 401-410, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:14:y:2013:i:4:p:401-410
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002513496013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Arkes Jeremy & Martinez Jose, 2011. "Finally, Evidence for a Momentum Effect in the NBA," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brett Green & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2018. "The Hot-Hand Fallacy: Cognitive Mistakes or Equilibrium Adjustments? Evidence from Major League Baseball," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5315-5348, November.
    2. Robert Wrathall & Rod Falvey & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2020. "Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 45(2), pages 223-239, May.
    3. Scott DeAngelis & W. Kip Viscusi, 2020. "When to Walk Away and When to Risk It All," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 525-547, June.
    4. Kniffin, Kevin M. & Mihalek, Vince, 2014. "Within-series momentum in hockey: No returns for running up the score," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 400-402.
    5. Marius Ötting & Roland Langrock & Christian Deutscher & Vianey Leos‐Barajas, 2020. "The hot hand in professional darts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(2), pages 565-580, February.
    6. Daniel F. Stone & Jeremy Arkes, 2018. "March Madness? Underreaction To Hot And Cold Hands In Ncaa Basketball," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1724-1747, July.
    7. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified," OSF Preprints pj79r, Center for Open Science.
    8. Robert M. Lantis & Erik T. Nesson, 2019. "Hot Shots: An Analysis of the ‘Hot Hand’ in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting," NBER Working Papers 26510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Cotton, Christopher S. & McIntyre, Frank & Nordstrom, Ardyn & Price, Joseph, 2019. "Correcting for bias in hot hand analysis: An application to youth golf," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    10. Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2021. "Hot Shots: An Analysis of the “Hot Hand†in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 639-677, August.
    11. Daniel F. Stone & Jeremy Arkes, 2016. "Reference Points, Prospect Theory, and Momentum on the PGA Tour," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(5), pages 453-482, June.
    12. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?," Working Papers 548, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

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    Keywords

    hot hand; NBA; basketball; momentum;
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