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Precipitation Trends and Variability in River Basins in Urban Expansion Areas

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  • A. C. Oscar-Júnior

    (State University of Rio de Janeiro)

Abstract

River basins are important territorial units for geographical analysis, and are crucial for environmental planning, especially in metropolitan settings. The aim of this article was to evaluate rainfall trends and variability in the Guapimirim-Macacu basin, located in an urban development area in the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region. Annual, monthly and daily records were collected from twenty rain gauge stations, for the period of 1967 to 2015. Analyses conducted using the RClimDex software revealed an increase in rainfall volume and number of wet days. The remaining indicators and patterns observed across stations also suggested that changes in precipitation trends occurred mostly on the day scale, and were likely attributable to global climate change. After controlling for seasonality and normalizing the series, a linear tendency between the mean monthly precipitation in the Guapimirim-Macau basin and sea surface temperature (SST), obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, revealed that rainfall in the region is strongly correlated with Pacific and Atlantic SST, revealing the importance of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone for rainfall variability in the area of study, especially in summer. These data are important for development planning and the management of water resources and supply in the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region.

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  • A. C. Oscar-Júnior, 2021. "Precipitation Trends and Variability in River Basins in Urban Expansion Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 661-674, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02749-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02749-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bing-Chen Jhong & Jung Huang & Ching-Pin Tung, 2019. "Spatial Assessment of Climate Risk for Investigating Climate Adaptation Strategies by Evaluating Spatial-Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3377-3400, August.
    2. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
    3. Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Veronica Uchuari & Arianna Oñate-Paladines, 2020. "Large-Scale Climate Variability Patterns and Drought: A Case of Study in South – America," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 2061-2079, April.
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