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Environmental dynamics of the Juruá watershed in the Amazon

Author

Listed:
  • Elton Luis Silva Abel

    (Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ))

  • Rafael Coll Delgado

    (Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ))

  • Regiane Souza Vilanova

    (Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ))

  • Paulo Eduardo Teodoro

    (Federal University of Mato Grosso Do Sul (UFMS))

  • Carlos Antonio Silva Junior

    (State University of Mato Grosso (UNEMAT))

  • Marcel Carvalho Abreu

    (Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ))

  • Guilherme Fernando Capristo Silva

    (Federal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT), Postgraduate Program in Agronomy)

Abstract

The Juruá Watershed region, an important tributary of the Amazon River, lacks scientific information related to climate and environmental variables. In this sense, this study intends to analyze the environmental dynamics of the Juruá Watershed in the Amazon. We used monthly weather data derived from Reanalysis 2. The products fire foci, vegetation index and surface water index derived from the MODIS sensor for a monthly time series from 2001 to 2018. The ARIMA model was used to simulate future changes from NDFI. The lowest rainfall years of the series were 2005, 2010 and 2016 also observed for soil moisture in 2005 and 2016; the most rainfall years were 2009 and 2014, with the highest values of flooded areas in January, 23,772 km2. The highest concentration of fire foci occurred in August and September, coinciding with the lowest NDFI values found (1421 km2 and 890 km2), with the years 2005 and 2010 with highest fire foci. The EVI showed higher values from October to December with values close to 0.57, the lowest values in June and July (0.50). The years 2009 and 2015 showed largest flooded area records, 2005 and 2010 the lowest records. The PCA pointed out the rain as the variable of greatest influence in the basin with 0.98, followed by hot flashes with − 0.90. NDFI was highly correlated with rainfall and ARIMA modeling allowed the generation of a reliable future scenario and a significant downward trend in flooded areas by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Elton Luis Silva Abel & Rafael Coll Delgado & Regiane Souza Vilanova & Paulo Eduardo Teodoro & Carlos Antonio Silva Junior & Marcel Carvalho Abreu & Guilherme Fernando Capristo Silva, 2021. "Environmental dynamics of the Juruá watershed in the Amazon," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6769-6785, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s10668-020-00890-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00890-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric A. Davidson & Alessandro C. de Araújo & Paulo Artaxo & Jennifer K. Balch & I. Foster Brown & Mercedes M. C. Bustamante & Michael T. Coe & Ruth S. DeFries & Michael Keller & Marcos Longo & J. Will, 2012. "The Amazon basin in transition," Nature, Nature, vol. 481(7381), pages 321-328, January.
    2. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
    3. Douglas C. Morton & Jyoteshwar Nagol & Claudia C. Carabajal & Jacqueline Rosette & Michael Palace & Bruce D. Cook & Eric F. Vermote & David J. Harding & Peter R. J. North, 2014. "Amazon forests maintain consistent canopy structure and greenness during the dry season," Nature, Nature, vol. 506(7487), pages 221-224, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Renato Marques Sanches Pereira & Henderson Silva Wanderley & Rafael Coll Delgado, 2022. "Homogeneous regions for rainfall distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro associated with the risk of natural disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 333-351, March.

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