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On the Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall Events Across Italy: Should We Update the Probability of Failure of Existing Hydraulic Works?

Author

Listed:
  • Benedetta Moccia

    (Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza)

  • Elena Ridolfi

    (Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza)

  • Claudio Mineo

    (Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza)

  • Fabio Russo

    (Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza)

  • Francesco Napolitano

    (Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza)

Abstract

Every year, extreme rainfall events cause human deaths and economic losses around the world. Risk reduction strategies may involve the implementation of structural measures that are widely extended and financial relevant. Despite the high reliance on these mitigation measures, there might occur instances of overload, i.e. events with intensities exceeding the design value of these structures, that may have catastrophic consequences. In this framework, it is crucial to improve hydraulic works management, thus, we introduce a procedure at rain gauge scale for revising design variables throughout their operational lifespan. This enables us to enhance the assessment of the probability of failure of these works. Finally, we investigate instances where design variables experience overload during the recording period, thus assessing the occurrence of rare yet possible events. To this aim we find the most-suitable probability distribution to describe daily rainfall maxima in Italy. Specifically, we test the performance of four widely used bi-parametrical distributions with different tail behaviour, by analysing an impressive dataset consisting of 2282 rain gauges observations from 1860 to 2022. Our results show that: (1) 78% of the empirical samples exhibits heavy-tail behaviour; (2) when the update procedure is applied, 64% of the samples shows a higher-than-expected probability of failure; (3) at least one case of overload associated to a 100-years return period is recorded in almost all regions. Based on our results, existing hydraulic works designed to safeguard populations and their activities from catastrophic events may face a higher risk of failure than initially expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Benedetta Moccia & Elena Ridolfi & Claudio Mineo & Fabio Russo & Francesco Napolitano, 2024. "On the Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall Events Across Italy: Should We Update the Probability of Failure of Existing Hydraulic Works?," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(11), pages 4069-4082, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03852-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03852-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brunella Bonaccorso & Giuseppe T. Aronica, 2016. "Estimating Temporal Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5651-5670, December.
    2. Muhammad Uzair Qamar & Muhammad Azmat & Muhammad Adnan Shahid & Daniele Ganora & Shakil Ahmad & Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud Cheema & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Abid Sarwar & Muhammad Shafeeque & Muhammad Imran, 2017. "Rainfall Extremes: a Novel Modeling Approach for Regionalization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1975-1994, April.
    3. Amin Rasekh & Abbas Afshar & Mohammad Afshar, 2010. "Risk-Cost Optimization of Hydraulic Structures: Methodology and Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(11), pages 2833-2851, September.
    4. Giuseppe Cipolla & Antonio Francipane & Leonardo Valerio Noto, 2020. "Classification of Extreme Rainfall for a Mediterranean Region by Means of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Reanalysis Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(10), pages 3219-3235, August.
    5. Bing-Chen Jhong & Jung Huang & Ching-Pin Tung, 2019. "Spatial Assessment of Climate Risk for Investigating Climate Adaptation Strategies by Evaluating Spatial-Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3377-3400, August.
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