IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i23p10050-d454874.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Assessment of Climate Change and Land-Use Influences on the Runoff of a Typical Coastal Basin in Northern China

Author

Listed:
  • Junfang Liu

    (College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Baolin Xue

    (College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Yuhui Yan

    (College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

Land use and climate change are the two major driving factors of watershed runoff change, and it is of great significance to study the influence of watershed hydrological processes on water resource planning and management. This study takes the Changyang River basin as the study area, builds a SWAT model and explores the applicability of the SWAT model in the basin. Moreover, we combine data on land use and climate change in different periods to construct a variety of scenario models to quantitatively analyze the impacts of different scenarios on runoff. The results show that the R 2 and Ensof the model are 0.71 and 0.68 in the calibration period, respectively, and those in the verification period are 0.68 and 0.65, respectively, indicating that the SWAT model has good applicability in simulating the runoff of the Changyang River basin. Under the comprehensive scenario of land use and climate change on runoff, we found that land use and climate change have a certain contribution to the change in runoff. Therefore, the runoff of the basin increased by 0.22 m 3 /s, in which land-use change caused the runoff in the basin to increase by 0.07 m 3 /s attributed to the decreased area of arable land and the increased area of urban land in the basin. Moreover, climate change has caused the runoff in the basin to increase by 0.13 m 3 /s, mainly influenced by the increased precipitation. The results show that climate change has a more significant effect on runoff in the basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Junfang Liu & Baolin Xue & Yuhui Yan, 2020. "The Assessment of Climate Change and Land-Use Influences on the Runoff of a Typical Coastal Basin in Northern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:23:p:10050-:d:454874
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/23/10050/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/23/10050/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. J. Vörösmarty & P. B. McIntyre & M. O. Gessner & D. Dudgeon & A. Prusevich & P. Green & S. Glidden & S. E. Bunn & C. A. Sullivan & C. Reidy Liermann & P. M. Davies, 2010. "Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7315), pages 555-561, September.
    2. Aghapour Sabbaghi, Mohammad & Nazari, Mohammadreza & Araghinejad, Shahab & Soufizadeh, Saeid, 2020. "Economic impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    3. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
    4. Bentolhoda Asl-Rousta & S. Jamshid Mousavi & Majid Ehtiat & Mehdi Ahmadi, 2018. "SWAT-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Model Selection Criteria," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(6), pages 2181-2197, April.
    5. Xue, Bao-Lin & Guo, Qinghua & Hu, Tianyu & Wang, Guoqiang & Wang, Yongcai & Tao, Shengli & Su, Yanjun & Liu, Jin & Zhao, Xiaoqian, 2017. "Evaluation of modeled global vegetation carbon dynamics: Analysis based on global carbon flux and above-ground biomass data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 355(C), pages 84-96.
    6. Jiping Yao & Guoqiang Wang & Weina Xue & Zhipeng Yao & Baolin Xue, 2019. "Assessing the Adaptability of Water Resources System in Shandong Province, China, Using a Novel Comprehensive Co-evolution Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(2), pages 657-675, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tewekel Melese Gemechu & Hongling Zhao & Shanshan Bao & Cidan Yangzong & Yingying Liu & Fengping Li & Hongyan Li, 2021. "Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Yesen Liu & Yaohuan Huang & Jinhong Wan & Zhenshan Yang & Xiaolei Zhang, 2020. "Analysis of Human Activity Impact on Flash Floods in China from 1950 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Yuk San Liew & Safari Mat Desa & Md. Nasir Md. Noh & Mou Leong Tan & Nor Azazi Zakaria & Chun Kiat Chang, 2021. "Assessing the Effectiveness of Mitigation Strategies for Flood Risk Reduction in the Segamat River Basin, Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-23, March.
    4. Byungwoong Choi & Seung Se Choi, 2021. "Integrated Hydraulic Modelling, Water Quality Modelling and Habitat Assessment for Sustainable Water Management: A Case Study of the Anyang-Cheon Stream, Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-16, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Donna, Javier & Espin-Sanchez, Jose, 2014. "The Illiquidity of Water Markets," MPRA Paper 55078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hossein Mikhak & Mehdi Rahimian & Saeed Gholamrezai, 2022. "Implications of changing cropping pattern to low water demand plants due to climate change: evidence from Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 9833-9850, August.
    3. Luis Garrote, 2017. "Managing Water Resources to Adapt to Climate Change: Facing Uncertainty and Scarcity in a Changing Context," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2951-2963, August.
    4. Iglesias, Ana & Garrote, Luis, 2015. "Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 113-124.
    5. Molini, A. & Talkner, P. & Katul, G.G. & Porporato, A., 2011. "First passage time statistics of Brownian motion with purely time dependent drift and diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 1841-1852.
    6. Xiuchen Wu & Hongyan Liu & Dali Guo & Oleg A Anenkhonov & Natalya K Badmaeva & Denis V Sandanov, 2012. "Growth Decline Linked to Warming-Induced Water Limitation in Hemi-Boreal Forests," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-12, August.
    7. Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie & Maruf Yakubu Ahmed & Phebe Asantewaa Owusu, 2022. "Global adaptation readiness and income mitigate sectoral climate change vulnerabilities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Yuichiro Yoshida & Han Soo Lee & Bui Huy Trung & Hoang-Dung Tran & Mahrjan Keshlav Lall & Kifayatullah Kakar & Tran Dang Xuan, 2020. "Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower Dams on Fisheries and Agriculture in Lower Mekong Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Cai, Benan & Long, Chengjun & Du, Qiaochen & Zhang, Wenchao & Hou, Yandong & Wang, Haijun & Cai, Weihua, 2023. "Analysis of a spray flash desalination system driven by low-grade waste heat with different intermittencies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    10. Yang, Lin & Pang, Shujiang & Wang, Xiaoyan & Du, Yi & Huang, Jieyu & Melching, Charles S., 2021. "Optimal allocation of best management practices based on receiving water capacity constraints," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    11. Antonio J. Castro & Cristina Quintas-Soriano & Jodi Brandt & Carla L. Atkinson & Colden V. Baxter & Morey Burnham & Benis N. Egoh & Marina García-Llorente & Jason P. Julian & Berta Martín-López & Feli, 2018. "Applying Place-Based Social-Ecological Research to Address Water Scarcity: Insights for Future Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, May.
    12. Qiting Zuo & Yixuan Diao & Lingang Hao & Chunhui Han, 2020. "Comprehensive Evaluation of the Human-Water Harmony Relationship in Countries Along the “Belt and Road”," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4019-4035, October.
    13. Paul L. G. Vlek & Asia Khamzina & Hossein Azadi & Anik Bhaduri & Luna Bharati & Ademola Braimoh & Christopher Martius & Terry Sunderland & Fatemeh Taheri, 2017. "Trade-Offs in Multi-Purpose Land Use under Land Degradation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    14. Xinxin Liu & Xiaosheng Wang & Haiying Guo & Xiaojie An, 2021. "Benefit Allocation in Shared Water-Saving Management Contract Projects Based on Modified Expected Shapley Value," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 39-62, January.
    15. Hengzhou Xu & Chuanrong Zhang & Weidong Li & Wenjing Zhang & Hongchun Yin, 2018. "Economic growth and carbon emission in China:a spatial econometric Kuznets curve?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 11-28.
    16. S . K. Oni & F. Mieres & M. N. Futter & H. Laudon, 2017. "Soil temperature responses to climate change along a gradient of upland–riparian transect in boreal forest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 27-41, July.
    17. Dalei Hao & Gautam Bisht & Hailong Wang & Donghui Xu & Huilin Huang & Yun Qian & L. Ruby Leung, 2023. "A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Christian Franco-Crespo & Jose Maria Sumpsi Viñas, 2017. "The Impact of Pricing Policies on Irrigation Water for Agro-Food Farms in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-18, August.
    19. Yiwen Chiu & Yi Yang & Cody Morse, 2022. "Quantifying carbon footprint for ecological river restoration," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 952-970, January.
    20. Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:23:p:10050-:d:454874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.