IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v33y2019i4d10.1007_s11269-019-02213-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comparison of Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Models

Author

Listed:
  • E. Pacchin

    (University of Ferrara)

  • F. Gagliardi

    (University of Ferrara)

  • S. Alvisi

    (University of Ferrara)

  • M. Franchini

    (University of Ferrara)

Abstract

This paper presents a comparison of different short-term water demand forecasting models. The comparison regards six models that differ in terms of: forecasting technique, type of forecast (deterministic or probabilistic) and the amount of data necessary for calibration. Specifically, the following are compared: a neural-network based model (ANN_WDF), a pattern-based model (Patt_WDF), two pattern-based models relying on the moving-window technique (αβ_WDF and Bakk_WDF), a probabilistic Markov chain-based model (HMC_WDF) and a naïve benchmark model. The comparison is made by applying the models to seven real-life cases, making reference to the water demands observed over 2 years in district-metered areas/water distribution networks of different sizes serving a different number and type of users. The models are applied in order to forecast the hourly water demands over a 24-h time horizon. The comparison shows that a) models based on different techniques provide comparable, medium-high forecasting accuracies, but also that b) short-term water demand forecasting models based on moving-window techniques are generally the most robust and easier to set up and parameterize.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Pacchin & F. Gagliardi & S. Alvisi & M. Franchini, 2019. "A Comparison of Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1481-1497, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02213-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02213-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-02213-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-019-02213-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guoqiang Chen & Tianyu Long & Jiangong Xiong & Yun Bai, 2017. "Multiple Random Forests Modelling for Urban Water Consumption Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(15), pages 4715-4729, December.
    2. Linas Gelažanskas & Kelum A. A. Gamage, 2015. "Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Ashu Jain & Ashish Kumar Varshney & Umesh Chandra Joshi, 2001. "Short-Term Water Demand Forecast Modelling at IIT Kanpur Using Artificial Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 15(5), pages 299-321, October.
    4. Salah L. Zubaidi & Sadik K. Gharghan & Jayne Dooley & Rafid M. Alkhaddar & Mawada Abdellatif, 2018. "Short-Term Urban Water Demand Prediction Considering Weather Factors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(14), pages 4527-4542, November.
    5. Mukand Babel & Victor Shinde, 2011. "Identifying Prominent Explanatory Variables for Water Demand Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Case Study of Bangkok," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(6), pages 1653-1676, April.
    6. Jorge Caiado, 2009. "Performance of combined double seasonal univariate time series models for forecasting water demand," CEMAPRE Working Papers 0903, Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics (CEMAPRE), School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jens Kley-Holsteg & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Probabilistic Multi-Step-Ahead Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting with Lasso," Papers 2005.04522, arXiv.org.
    2. Anna Borucka, 2023. "Seasonal Methods of Demand Forecasting in the Supply Chain as Support for the Company’s Sustainable Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Irene Marzola & Stefano Alvisi & Marco Franchini, 2022. "A Comparison of Model-Based Methods for Leakage Localization in Water Distribution Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5711-5727, November.
    4. Salah L. Zubaidi & Sandra Ortega-Martorell & Patryk Kot & Rafid M. Alkhaddar & Mawada Abdellatif & Sadik K. Gharghan & Maytham S. Ahmed & Khalid Hashim, 2020. "A Method for Predicting Long-Term Municipal Water Demands Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1265-1279, February.
    5. Caspar V. C. Geelen & Doekle R. Yntema & Jaap Molenaar & Karel J. Keesman, 2021. "Burst Detection by Water Demand Nowcasting Based on Exogenous Sensors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(4), pages 1183-1196, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mukand Babel & Nisuchcha Maporn & Victor Shinde, 2014. "Incorporating Future Climatic and Socioeconomic Variables in Water Demand Forecasting: A Case Study in Bangkok," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 2049-2062, May.
    2. Salah L. Zubaidi & Sadik K. Gharghan & Jayne Dooley & Rafid M. Alkhaddar & Mawada Abdellatif, 2018. "Short-Term Urban Water Demand Prediction Considering Weather Factors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(14), pages 4527-4542, November.
    3. Md Haque & Ataur Rahman & Dharma Hagare & Golam Kibria, 2014. "Probabilistic Water Demand Forecasting Using Projected Climatic Data for Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1959-1971, May.
    4. Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & En-hong Guan & Yong-xiang Wu & Juan Gao & Rui-min He, 2016. "Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 81-99, January.
    5. Jens Kley-Holsteg & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Probabilistic Multi-Step-Ahead Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting with Lasso," Papers 2005.04522, arXiv.org.
    6. Sholpan Saimova & Gulsim Makenova & Aizhan Skakova & Aitolkyn Moldagaliyeva & Ardak Beisembinova & Zhamilya Berdiyarova & Bagdagul Imanbekova, 2020. "Towards a Low-carbon Economic Sustainable Development: Scenarios and Policies for Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 638-646.
    7. Wen-Ze Wu & Chong Liu & Wanli Xie & Mark Goh & Tao Zhang, 2023. "Predictive analysis of the industrial water-waste-energy system using an optimised grey approach: A case study in China," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1639-1656, August.
    8. Vinit Sehgal & Rajeev Sahay & Chandranath Chatterjee, 2014. "Effect of Utilization of Discrete Wavelet Components on Flood Forecasting Performance of Wavelet Based ANFIS Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1733-1749, April.
    9. Mahmut Firat & Mehmet Yurdusev & Mustafa Turan, 2009. "Evaluation of Artificial Neural Network Techniques for Municipal Water Consumption Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(4), pages 617-632, March.
    10. Karamaziotis, Panagiotis I. & Raptis, Achilleas & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Litsiou, Konstantia & Assimakopoulos, Vassilis, 2020. "An empirical investigation of water consumption forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 588-606.
    11. Linas Gelažanskas & Kelum A. A. Gamage, 2016. "Distributed Energy Storage Using Residential Hot Water Heaters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, February.
    12. Mustafa Akpinar & Nejat Yumusak, 2016. "Year Ahead Demand Forecast of City Natural Gas Using Seasonal Time Series Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    13. Sanjeet Kumar & Mukesh Tiwari & Chandranath Chatterjee & Ashok Mishra, 2015. "Reservoir Inflow Forecasting Using Ensemble Models Based on Neural Networks, Wavelet Analysis and Bootstrap Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4863-4883, October.
    14. Sara Fontdecaba & Pere Grima & Lluís Marco & Lourdes Rodero & José Sánchez-Espigares & Ignasi Solé & Xavier Tort-Martorell & Dominique Demessence & Victor Martínez De Pablo & Jordi Zubelzu, 2012. "A Methodology to Model Water Demand based on the Identification of Homogenous Client Segments. Application to the City of Barcelona," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 499-516, January.
    15. Rafael Benítez & Carmen Ortiz-Caraballo & Juan Carlos Preciado & José M. Conejero & Fernando Sánchez Figueroa & Alvaro Rubio-Largo, 2019. "A Short-Term Data Based Water Consumption Prediction Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-24, June.
    16. Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang & Shahid Shamsuddin & Ru-lin Oyang & Tie-sheng Guan & Jian-guo Xue & Xu Zhang, 2017. "Impacts of climate variability and changes on domestic water use in the Yellow River Basin of China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 595-608, April.
    17. Abdüsselam Altunkaynak & Mehmet Özger & Mehmet Çakmakci, 2005. "Water Consumption Prediction of Istanbul City by Using Fuzzy Logic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(5), pages 641-654, October.
    18. Shengwen Zhou & Shunsheng Guo & Baigang Du & Shuo Huang & Jun Guo, 2022. "A Hybrid Framework for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting of Daily Urban Water Demand Using Attention-Based Convolutional Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    19. Abdüsselam Altunkaynak, 2007. "Forecasting Surface Water Level Fluctuations of Lake Van by Artificial Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(2), pages 399-408, February.
    20. Bo Lin & Shuhui Li & Yang Xiao, 2017. "Optimal and Learning-Based Demand Response Mechanism for Electric Water Heater System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02213-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.