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Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward

Author

Listed:
  • J. J. Warmink

    (University of Twente)

  • M. Brugnach

    (University of Twente)

  • J. Vinke-de Kruijf

    (University of Twente)

  • R. M. J. Schielen

    (University of Twente
    Rijkswaterstaat)

  • D. C. M. Augustijn

    (University of Twente)

Abstract

Coping with uncertainties is inherent to river management planning and policymaking. Yet, policymakers often perceive uncertainty as a complicating factor. We examine the challenges faced by policymakers when coping with uncertainties and provide an action perspective on how to best cope with these challenges to inform the policy debate. Integrating social and natural scientist’s perspectives on uncertainties and learning theories, we present a holistic, management perspective for coping with uncertainty. Based on a literature review about uncertainty concepts, strategies and learning, we identify three challenges in current river management: balancing social and technical uncertainties, being conservative and avoiding to end up a lock-in situation. We then provide a step-wise strategy and concrete actions for policymakers, which are illustrated with several examples. We conclude that coping with uncertainty may require paradigm shifts that can only be achieved through organisational learning. This, we claim, requires reflection, learning and flexibility of policymakers and their organisation.

Suggested Citation

  • J. J. Warmink & M. Brugnach & J. Vinke-de Kruijf & R. M. J. Schielen & D. C. M. Augustijn, 2017. "Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4587-4600, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1767-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1767-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcelo Coelho & Cristovão Vicente Scapulatempo Fernandes & Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel, 2019. "Uncertainty analysis in the detection of trends, cycles, and shifts in water resources time series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2629-2644, June.
    2. B. Mehdi & K. Schulz & R. Ludwig & F. Ferber & B. Lehner, 2018. "Evaluating the Importance of Non-Unique Behavioural Parameter Sets on Surface Water Quality Variables under Climate Change Conditions in a Mesoscale Agricultural Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(2), pages 619-639, January.

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