IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v32y2018i2d10.1007_s11269-017-1830-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the Importance of Non-Unique Behavioural Parameter Sets on Surface Water Quality Variables under Climate Change Conditions in a Mesoscale Agricultural Watershed

Author

Listed:
  • B. Mehdi

    (McGill University
    University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU)
    University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU))

  • K. Schulz

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU))

  • R. Ludwig

    (Ludwig Maximilians University)

  • F. Ferber

    (Ludwig Maximilians University)

  • B. Lehner

    (McGill University)

Abstract

The parameter uncertainty in the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was estimated using non-unique parameter sets for the Altmühl watershed (Bavaria, Germany). The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2) was used to calibrate SWAT. The non-unique parameter sets found were subsequently applied to SWAT concurrently with climate change simulations to determine the variables of streamflow, nitrate nitrogen (NO3 −-N) and total phosphorus (TP). A suite of seven bias corrected climate change simulations provided reference (1970–2000) and future (2041–2070) climate data. The non-unique behavioural parameter sets that met an objective function of NSE >0.6 during calibration were applied to SWAT with the reference climate and with the future climate simulations. The best parameter set was also propagated through SWAT with each reference and future climate simulation in turn. Combining the non-unique behavioural parameter sets for estimating uncertainty bounds with an ensemble of climate change simulations led to a wider mean monthly spread (difference between maximum and minimum) of simulated NO3 −-N and TP than using the best run with the future climate simulations. More monthly data was considered using the non-unique approach, resulting in statistical significances for more months of the year and overall lower interquartile ranges. The study quantifies the non-unique behavioural parameter set contributions to the modelling prediction, which assists in making more informed decisions based on available knowledge, with its limitations, of the future simulations. We outline a simple approach that can easily be replicated for similar hydrological modelling studies.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Mehdi & K. Schulz & R. Ludwig & F. Ferber & B. Lehner, 2018. "Evaluating the Importance of Non-Unique Behavioural Parameter Sets on Surface Water Quality Variables under Climate Change Conditions in a Mesoscale Agricultural Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(2), pages 619-639, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1830-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1830-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-017-1830-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-017-1830-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yue-Ping Xu & Yeou-Koung Tung, 2008. "Decision-making in Water Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(5), pages 535-550, May.
    2. Boini Narsimlu & Ashvin Gosain & Baghu Chahar, 2013. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3647-3662, August.
    3. Joeri Rogelj & Malte Meinshausen & Reto Knutti, 2012. "Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 248-253, April.
    4. Ullrich, Antje & Volk, Martin, 2009. "Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the impact of alternative management practices on water quality and quantity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 1207-1217, August.
    5. Peter Keur & M. Brugnach & A. Dewulf & J. Refsgaard & P. Zorilla & M. Poolman & N. Isendahl & G. Raadgever & H. Henriksen & J. Warmink & M. Lamers & J. Mysiak, 2010. "Identifying Uncertainty Guidelines for Supporting Policy Making in Water Management Illustrated for Upper Guadiana and Rhine Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3901-3938, November.
    6. J. J. Warmink & M. Brugnach & J. Vinke-de Kruijf & R. M. J. Schielen & D. C. M. Augustijn, 2017. "Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4587-4600, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rivas-Tabares, David & Tarquis, Ana M. & Willaarts, Bárbara & De Miguel, Ángel, 2019. "An accurate evaluation of water availability in sub-arid Mediterranean watersheds through SWAT: Cega-Eresma-Adaja," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 211-225.
    2. Jeong, Hanseok & Kim, Hakkwan & Jang, Taeil & Park, Seungwoo, 2016. "Assessing the effects of indirect wastewater reuse on paddy irrigation in the Osan River watershed in Korea using the SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 393-402.
    3. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    4. Angshuman M. Saharia & Arup Kumar Sarma, 2018. "Future climate change impact evaluation on hydrologic processes in the Bharalu and Basistha basins using SWAT model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1463-1488, July.
    5. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    6. Malone, Thomas C. & DiGiacomo, Paul M. & Gonçalves, Emanuel & Knap, Anthony H. & Talaue-McManus, Liana & de Mora, Stephen, 2014. "A global ocean observing system framework for sustainable development," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 262-272.
    7. Sanjeet Kumar & Ashok Mishra & Umesh Kumar Singh, 2023. "Assessment of Land Cover Changes and Climate Variability Effects on Catchment Hydrology Using a Physically Distributed Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, June.
    8. Marko Reljić & Marija Romić & Davor Romić & Gordon Gilja & Vedran Mornar & Gabrijel Ondrasek & Marina Bubalo Kovačić & Monika Zovko, 2023. "Advanced Continuous Monitoring System—Tools for Water Resource Management and Decision Support System in Salt Affected Delta," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Zhang, Dejian & Chen, Xingwei & Yao, Huaxia & Lin, Bingqing, 2015. "Improved calibration scheme of SWAT by separating wet and dry seasons," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 301(C), pages 54-61.
    10. Bai, Lujian & Wang, Shusheng, 2019. "Definition of new thermal climate zones for building energy efficiency response to the climate change during the past decades in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 709-719.
    11. Javier Senent-Aparicio & Sitian Liu & Julio Pérez-Sánchez & Adrián López-Ballesteros & Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, 2018. "Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    12. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    13. Nicola Isendahl & Art Dewulf & Marcela Brugnach & Greet François & Sabine Möllenkamp & Claudia Pahl-Wostl, 2009. "Assessing Framing of Uncertainties in Water Management Practice," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(15), pages 3191-3205, December.
    14. Nicholas Stern, 2013. "The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 838-859, September.
    15. Siriporn Supratid & Thannob Aribarg & Seree Supharatid, 2017. "An Integration of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network with Exogenous Input for Baseline and Future Forecasting of Reservoir Inflow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 4023-4043, September.
    16. Sandra Mourato & Madalena Moreira & João Corte-Real, 2015. "Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2377-2391, May.
    17. Bell, Kendon & Zilberman, David, 2016. "The potential for renewable fuels under greenhouse gas pricing: The case of sugarcane in Brazil," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt03h2850w, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    18. Moon-Hwan Lee & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2015. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Green and Blue Water over Asian Monsoon Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2407-2427, May.
    19. Kaj M. Hansen & Jesper H. Christensen & Jørgen Brandt, 2015. "The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, September.
    20. Kirsten Halsnæs & Lisa Bay & Mads Lykke Dømgaard & Per Skougaard Kaspersen & Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, 2020. "Accelerating Climate Service Development for Renewable Energy, Finance and Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1830-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.