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Incorporation of Cost-Benefit Analysis Considering Epistemic Uncertainty for Calculating the Optimal Design Flood

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  • Sang Ug Kim

    (Kangwon National University)

  • Cheol-Eung Lee

    (Kangwon National University)

Abstract

Design flood via flood frequency analysis provides basic information for designing hydraulic structures. Quantification of uncertainty in flood frequency analysis has become an important issue during the past three decades. However, few studies have considered practical procedures for selecting a single design flood in the uncertainty range. Cost-benefit analysis can be incorporated to select a single design flood by calculating the optimal value in the total expected cost function. In particular, in this study, the relationship between conventional flood frequency analysis and cost-benefit analysis is addressed. Additionally, the parameter uncertainty is quantified by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to find the optimal design floods considering parameter uncertainty. The annual maximum (AM) series and partial duration (PD) series were used to identify the effect of various types of data. The optimal design floods obtained by the cost-benefit analysis considering parameter uncertainty were systematically larger than the design flood obtained by the conventional flood frequency analysis. Regarding the types of data, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) had the largest values in all return periods, while the Gumbel distribution had the smallest values in all cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Sang Ug Kim & Cheol-Eung Lee, 2021. "Incorporation of Cost-Benefit Analysis Considering Epistemic Uncertainty for Calculating the Optimal Design Flood," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 757-774, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02764-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02764-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Leandro José Isensee & Adilson Pinheiro & Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel, 2021. "Dam Hydrological Risk and the Design Flood Under Non-stationary Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1499-1512, March.
    2. Saeed Alimohammadi & Masoume Behrouz, 2021. "Stochastic Design of Flood Control Systems; Uncertainty Propagation and Results Representation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4457-4476, October.

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