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Risk-Based Design of Flood Control Systems Considering Multiple Dependent Uncertainties

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  • Masoumeh Behrouz

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Saeed Alimohammadi

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

Abstract

Due to random behavior of flood events and inaccuracies in measurements, design, analysis, and operation of flood control systems are subjected to several uncertainties. An important aspect in developing stochastic models for evaluating and analyzing more than one uncertainty is the dependence or independence of them. In flood control projects, hydrologic, hydraulic, geotechnical, and economic uncertainties are important considerations. In this paper, a stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation – optimization modeling approach is described for risk-based design of flood control levees (as a common structural flood control measure): considering multiple dependent uncertainties. It has been applied to the Leaf River reach in Hattiesburg, Mississippi for testing and evaluation of modeling results. Unlike a deterministic model that yields just one set of values for system dimensions, the stochastic model solution gives a range of values for each of them. One of the major reasons for limited field application of uncertainty analysis is difficulties in performing the modeling results in real world contexts. For closing the gap between theory and reality, design charts are developed in this study. This helps decision makers in identifying design values with desired and accepted risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Masoumeh Behrouz & Saeed Alimohammadi, 2016. "Risk-Based Design of Flood Control Systems Considering Multiple Dependent Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4529-4558, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1434-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1434-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Y. Li & G. Huang & S. Nie, 2009. "Water Resources Management and Planning under Uncertainty: an Inexact Multistage Joint-Probabilistic Programming Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(12), pages 2515-2538, September.
    2. Feifei Dong & Yong Liu & Han Su & Zhongyao Liang & Rui Zou & Huaicheng Guo, 2016. "Uncertainty-Based Multi-Objective Decision Making with Hierarchical Reliability Analysis Under Water Resources and Environmental Constraints," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 805-822, January.
    3. Feifei Dong & Yong Liu & Han Su & Zhongyao Liang & Rui Zou & Huaicheng Guo, 2016. "Uncertainty-Based Multi-Objective Decision Making with Hierarchical Reliability Analysis Under Water Resources and Environmental Constraints," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 805-822, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sang Ug Kim & Cheol-Eung Lee, 2021. "Incorporation of Cost-Benefit Analysis Considering Epistemic Uncertainty for Calculating the Optimal Design Flood," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 757-774, January.
    2. Javad Ahadiyan & Farhad Bahmanpouri & Atefeh Adeli & Carlo Gualtieri & Alireza Khoshkonesh, 2022. "Riprap Effect on Hydraulic Fracturing Process of Cohesive and Non-cohesive Protective Levees," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 625-639, January.
    3. Saeed Alimohammadi & Masoume Behrouz, 2021. "Stochastic Design of Flood Control Systems; Uncertainty Propagation and Results Representation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4457-4476, October.
    4. Daniel P. Loucks, 2017. "Managing Water as a Critical Component of a Changing World," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2905-2916, August.

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