IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v23y2009i12p2515-2538.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Water Resources Management and Planning under Uncertainty: an Inexact Multistage Joint-Probabilistic Programming Method

Author

Listed:
  • Y. Li
  • G. Huang
  • S. Nie

Abstract

In this study, an inexact multistage joint-probabilistic programming (IMJP) method is developed for tackling uncertainties presented as interval values and joint probabilities. IMJP improves upon the existing multistage programming and inexact optimization approaches, which can help examine the risk of violating joint-probabilistic constraints. Moreover, it can facilitate analyses of policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised targets are violated within a multistage context. The developed method is applied to a case study of water-resources management within a multi-stream, multi-reservoir and multi-period context, where mixed integer linear programming (MILP) technique is introduced into the IMJP framework to facilitate dynamic analysis for decisions of surplus-flow diversion. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for continuous and binary variables have been generated. They can be used to help water resources managers to identify desired system designs against water shortage and for flood control, and to determine which of these designs can most efficiently accomplish optimizing the system objective under uncertainty. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Y. Li & G. Huang & S. Nie, 2009. "Water Resources Management and Planning under Uncertainty: an Inexact Multistage Joint-Probabilistic Programming Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(12), pages 2515-2538, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:23:y:2009:i:12:p:2515-2538
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-008-9394-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-008-9394-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-008-9394-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1983. "Response to "Decision Problems Under Risk and Chance Constrained Programming: Dilemmas in the Transition"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 750-753, June.
    2. Huang, Guo H. & Baetz, Brian W. & Patry, Gilles G., 1995. "Grey integer programming: An application to waste management planning under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 594-620, June.
    3. B. Luo & I. Maqsood & G. Huang, 2007. "Planning water resources systems with interval stochastic dynamic programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(6), pages 997-1014, June.
    4. N.C.P. Edirisinghe & E.I. Patterson & N. Saadouli, 2000. "Capacity Planning Model for a Multipurpose Water Reservoir with Target-Priority Operation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 100(1), pages 273-303, December.
    5. Dupacova, Jitka & Gaivoronski, Alexei & Kos, Zdenek & Szantai, Tamas, 1991. "Stochastic programming in water management: A case study and a comparison of solution techniques," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 28-44, May.
    6. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    7. Azaiez, M. N., 2002. "A model for conjunctive use of ground and surface water with opportunity costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 611-624, December.
    8. Huang, G. H. & Baetz, B. W. & Patry, G. G., 1995. "Grey fuzzy integer programming: An application to regional waste management planning under uncertainty," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 17-38, March.
    9. Yong Li & Guo Huang, 2008. "Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Nonlinear Programming for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(6), pages 681-698, June.
    10. Tsakiris, G., 1988. "Daily potential evapotranspiration modelling," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-4), pages 393-402, June.
    11. John R. Birge, 1985. "Decomposition and Partitioning Methods for Multistage Stochastic Linear Programs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(5), pages 989-1007, October.
    12. Huang, G. H., 1998. "A hybrid inexact-stochastic water management model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 137-158, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Mohammad Rezapour Tabari, 2015. "Conjunctive Use Management under Uncertainty Conditions in Aquifer Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2967-2986, June.
    2. Songsong Liu & Lazaros Papageorgiou & Petros Gikas, 2012. "Integrated Management of Non-conventional Water Resources in Anhydrous Islands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 359-375, January.
    3. Yao Ji & Guo Huang & Wei Sun, 2015. "Nonpoint-Source Water Quality Management Under Uncertainty Through an Inexact Double-Sided Chance-Constrained Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3079-3094, July.
    4. Sun, J. & Li, Y.P. & Suo, C. & Liu, Y.R., 2019. "Impacts of irrigation efficiency on agricultural water-land nexus system management under multiple uncertainties—A case study in Amu Darya River basin, Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 76-88.
    5. Sun, Wei & Huang, Guo H. & Lv, Ying & Li, Gongchen, 2013. "Inexact joint-probabilistic chance-constrained programming with left-hand-side randomness: An application to solid waste management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 217-225.
    6. Ma, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2023. "Planning China’s non-deterministic energy system (2021–2060) to achieve carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    7. Masoumeh Behrouz & Saeed Alimohammadi, 2016. "Risk-Based Design of Flood Control Systems Considering Multiple Dependent Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4529-4558, October.
    8. He, Chaofei & Chen, Fulong & Long, Aihua & Qian, YuXia & Tang, Hao, 2023. "Improving the precision of monthly runoff prediction using the combined non-stationary methods in an oasis irrigation area," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    9. Lin, Xiajing & Huang, Guohe & Zhou, Xiong & Zhai, Yuanyuan, 2023. "An inexact fractional multi-stage programming (IFMSP) method for planning renewable electric power system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Daniel P. Loucks, 2017. "Managing Water as a Critical Component of a Changing World," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2905-2916, August.
    11. Gong, J.W. & Li, Y.P. & Lv, J. & Huang, G.H. & Suo, C. & Gao, P.P., 2022. "Development of an integrated bi-level model for China’s multi-regional energy system planning under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    12. Fang-Fang Li & Han Cao & Chun-Feng Hao & Jun Qiu, 2021. "Daily Streamflow Forecasting Based on Flow Pattern Recognition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4601-4620, October.
    13. M. Li & P. Guo & G. Yang & S. Fang, 2014. "IB-ICCMSP: An Integrated Irrigation Water Optimal Allocation and Planning Model Based on Inventory Theory under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(1), pages 241-260, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Chen, X., 2011. "An interval-valued minimax-regret analysis approach for the identification of optimal greenhouse-gas abatement strategies under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4313-4324, July.
    2. Cao, M.F. & Huang, G.H. & Lin, Q.G., 2010. "Integer programming with random-boundary intervals for planning municipal power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2506-2516, August.
    3. Xu, Y. & Huang, G.H. & Qin, X.S. & Cao, M.F., 2009. "SRCCP: A stochastic robust chance-constrained programming model for municipal solid waste management under uncertainty," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 352-363.
    4. Lv, Y. & Yan, X.D. & Sun, W. & Gao, Z.Y., 2015. "A risk-based method for planning of bus–subway corridor evacuation under hybrid uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 188-199.
    5. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Nie, S.L. & Chen, X., 2011. "A robust modeling approach for regional water management under multiple uncertainties," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(10), pages 1577-1588, August.
    6. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Nie, S.L. & Qin, X.S., 2007. "ITCLP: An inexact two-stage chance-constrained program for planning waste management systems," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 284-307.
    7. L. Zhang & C. Li, 2014. "An Inexact Two-Stage Water Resources Allocation Model for Sustainable Development and Management Under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3161-3178, August.
    8. Min Zhou & Shasha Lu & Shukui Tan & Danping Yan & Guoliang Ou & Dianfeng Liu & Xiang Luo & Yanan Li & Lu Zhang & Zuo Zhang & Xiangbo Zhu, 2017. "A stochastic equilibrium chance-constrained programming model for municipal solid waste management of the City of Dalian, China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 199-218, January.
    9. Yong Zeng & Yanpeng Cai & Guohe Huang & Jing Dai, 2011. "A Review on Optimization Modeling of Energy Systems Planning and GHG Emission Mitigation under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(10), pages 1-33, October.
    10. Zhou, Feng & Huang, Gordon H. & Chen, Guo-Xian & Guo, Huai-Cheng, 2009. "Enhanced-interval linear programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 323-333, December.
    11. Dong, C. & Huang, G.H. & Cai, Y.P. & Liu, Y., 2012. "An inexact optimization modeling approach for supporting energy systems planning and air pollution mitigation in Beijing city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 673-688.
    12. Maqsood, Imran & Huang, Guo H. & Scott Yeomans, Julian, 2005. "An interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic program for water resources management under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 208-225, November.
    13. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Zhang, N. & Nie, S.L., 2011. "An inexact-stochastic with recourse model for developing regional economic-ecological sustainability under uncertainty," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 370-379.
    14. Chen, C. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2016. "Interval-fuzzy municipal-scale energy model for identification of optimal strategies for energy management – A case study of Tianjin, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1161-1177.
    15. P. Guo & G. Huang & L. He & H. Zhu, 2009. "Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Semi-infinite Programming: Application to Water Resources Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 1001-1023, March.
    16. Shaban Boloukat, Mohammad Hadi & Akbari Foroud, Asghar, 2016. "Stochastic-based resource expansion planning for a grid-connected microgrid using interval linear programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 776-787.
    17. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Fan, Y.R. & Nie, S., 2015. "A dynamic model to optimize municipal electric power systems by considering carbon emission trading under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 636-649.
    18. Liu, Y. & Huang, G.H. & Cai, Y.P. & Cheng, G.H. & Niu, Y.T. & An, K., 2009. "Development of an inexact optimization model for coupled coal and power management in North China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4345-4363, November.
    19. Mandal, Uday & Dhar, Anirban & Panda, Sudhindra N., 2021. "Enhancement of sustainable agricultural production system by integrated natural resources management framework under climatic and operational uncertainty," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    20. H. Zhu & G. Huang & P. Guo & X. Qin, 2009. "A Fuzzy Robust Nonlinear Programming Model for Stream Water Quality Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(14), pages 2913-2940, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:23:y:2009:i:12:p:2515-2538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.