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Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall Using Climate Covariates

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  • L. Vasiliades
  • P. Galiatsatou
  • A. Loukas

Abstract

The perception that hydrometeorological processes are non stationary on timescales that are applicable to extreme value analysis is recently well documented due to natural climate variability or human intervention. In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum daily rainfall time series for selected meteorological stations in Greece and Cyprus. The GEV distribution parameters are specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN) as proposed by Cannon ( 2010 ). The CDN is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. If one of the covariates is dependent on time, then the GEV-CDN model could perform non stationary extreme value analysis. Model parameters are estimated via the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS optimization algorithm, and the appropriate GEV-CDN model architecture for a selected meteorological station is selected by fitting increasingly complicated models and choosing the one that minimizes the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction or the Bayesian information criterion. For each meteorological station in Greece and Cyprus different formulations are tested with combinational cases of stationary and non stationary parameters of the GEV distribution, linear and nonlinear architecture of the CDN and combinations of the input climatic covariates. Climatic covariates examined in this study are the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which describes atmospheric circulation in the eastern tropical Pacific related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that varies on an interdecadal rather than inter annual time scale and atmospheric circulation patterns as expressed by the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • L. Vasiliades & P. Galiatsatou & A. Loukas, 2015. "Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall Using Climate Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 339-358, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:2:p:339-358
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0761-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Francisco Flores & Marta Moneo, 2007. "Challenges to Manage the Risk of Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Mediterranean," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 775-788, May.
    2. Amir AghaKouchak & Nasrin Nasrollahi, 2010. "Semi-parametric and Parametric Inference of Extreme Value Models for Rainfall Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(6), pages 1229-1249, April.
    3. Wendy Shinyie & Noriszura Ismail & Abdul Jemain, 2013. "Semi-parametric Estimation for Selecting Optimal Threshold of Extreme Rainfall Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2325-2352, May.
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    1. Yixuan Wang & Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Rong Hu, 2015. "A Time-Dependent Drought Index for Non-Stationary Precipitation Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5631-5647, December.
    2. Lazhar Belkhiri & Tae-Jeong Kim, 2021. "Individual Influence of Climate Variability Indices on Annual Maximum Precipitation Across the Global Scale," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(9), pages 2987-3003, July.
    3. Peng Jiang & Zhongbo Yu & Mahesh R. Gautam & Kumud Acharya, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4807-4821, October.
    4. Jianzhu Li & Senming Tan, 2015. "Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis for Annual Flood Peak Series, Adopting Climate Indices and Check Dam Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5533-5550, December.
    5. Yiming Hu & Zhongmin Liang & Vijay P. Singh & Xuebin Zhang & Jun Wang & Binquan Li & Huimin Wang, 2018. "Concept of Equivalent Reliability for Estimating the Design Flood under Non-stationary Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 997-1011, February.
    6. Huantian Xie & Dingfang Li & Lihua Xiong, 2016. "Exploring the Regional Variance using ARMA-GARCH Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3507-3518, August.
    7. Lihua Xiong & Tao Du & Chong-Yu Xu & Shenglian Guo & Cong Jiang & Christopher Gippel, 2015. "Non-Stationary Annual Maximum Flood Frequency Analysis Using the Norming Constants Method to Consider Non-Stationarity in the Annual Daily Flow Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3615-3633, August.
    8. Ali Razmi & Saeed Golian & Zahra Zahmatkesh, 2017. "Non-Stationary Frequency Analysis of Extreme Water Level: Application of Annual Maximum Series and Peak-over Threshold Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(7), pages 2065-2083, May.
    9. Linhan Yang & Jianzhu Li & Aiqing Kang & Shuai Li & Ping Feng, 2020. "The Effect of Nonstationarity in Rainfall on Urban Flooding Based on Coupling SWMM and MIKE21," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1535-1551, March.
    10. V. Agilan & N. V. Umamahesh, 2017. "Non-Stationary Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationship: a Comparison between Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1825-1841, April.
    11. Jianzhu Li & Yuming Lei & Senming Tan & Colin D. Bell & Bernard A. Engel & Yixuan Wang, 2018. "Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis for Annual Flood Peak and Volume Series in Both Univariate and Bivariate Domain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(13), pages 4239-4252, October.
    12. Fatemeh Yavari & Seyyed Ali Salehi Neyshabouri & Jafar Yazdi & Amir Molajou & Adam Brysiewicz, 2022. "A Novel Framework for Urban Flood damage Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 1991-2011, April.
    13. Ting Wei & Songbai Song, 2019. "Utilization of the Copula-Based Composite Likelihood Approach to Improve Design Precipitation Estimates Accuracy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5089-5106, December.
    14. Wentao Xu & Cong Jiang & Lei Yan & Lingqi Li & Shuonan Liu, 2018. "An Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings Optimization Algorithm of Bayesian Estimation in Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1343-1366, March.

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