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New Approach: Integrated Risk-Stochastic Dynamic Model for Dam and Reservoir Optimization

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  • Ahmed El-Shafie
  • Amr El-Shafie
  • Muhammad Mukhlisin

Abstract

Multiple studies have developed management models to identify optimal operating policies for reservoirs in the last four decades. In an uncertain environment, in which climatic factors such as stream flow are stochastic, the economic returns from reservoir releases that are based on policy are uncertain. Furthermore, the consequences of reservoir release are not fully realized until it occurs. Rather than explicitly recognizing the full spectrum of consequences that are possible within an uncertain environment, the existing optimization models have focused on addressing these uncertainties by identifying the release policies that optimize the summative metric of the risks that are associated with release decisions. This technique has limitations for representing risks that are associated with release policy decisions. In fact, the approach of these techniques may conflict with the actual attitudes of the decision-makers regarding the risk aspects of release policies. The risk aspects of these decisions affect the design and operation of multi-purpose reservoirs. A method is needed to completely represent and evaluate potential consequences that are associated with release decisions. In this study, these techniques were reviewed from the stochastic model and risk analysis perspectives. Therefore, previously developed optimization models for operating dams and reservoirs were reviewed based on their advantages and disadvantages. Specifically, optimal release decisions that use the stochastic variable impacts and the levels of risk that are associated with decisions were evaluated regarding model performance. In addition, a new approach was introduced to develop an optimization model that is capable of replicating the manner in which reservoir release decision risks are perceived and interpreted. This model is based on the Neural Network (NN) theory and enables a more complete representation of the risk function that occurs from particular reservoir release decisions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Ahmed El-Shafie & Amr El-Shafie & Muhammad Mukhlisin, 2014. "New Approach: Integrated Risk-Stochastic Dynamic Model for Dam and Reservoir Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2093-2107, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:8:p:2093-2107
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0596-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Afiq Hipni & Ahmed El-shafie & Ali Najah & Othman Karim & Aini Hussain & Muhammad Mukhlisin, 2013. "Erratum to: Daily Forecasting of Dam Water Levels: Comparing a Support Vector Machine (SVM) Model With Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4113-4113, September.
    2. Afiq Hipni & Ahmed El-shafie & Ali Najah & Othman Karim & Aini Hussain & Muhammad Mukhlisin, 2013. "Daily Forecasting of Dam Water Levels: Comparing a Support Vector Machine (SVM) Model With Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3803-3823, August.
    3. Ahmed El-Shafie & Mahmoud Taha & Aboelmagd Noureldin, 2007. "A neuro-fuzzy model for inflow forecasting of the Nile river at Aswan high dam," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(3), pages 533-556, March.
    4. Md. Hossain & A. El-shafie, 2013. "Intelligent Systems in Optimizing Reservoir Operation Policy: A Review," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3387-3407, July.
    5. Seyed Akrami & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Jaafar, 2013. "Improving Rainfall Forecasting Efficiency Using Modified Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (MANFIS)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3507-3523, July.
    6. Sabah Fayaed & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Jaafar, 2013. "Integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) Model for Optimal Release Policy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3679-3696, August.
    7. Nariman Valizadeh & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2013. "Forecasting the Level of Reservoirs Using Multiple Input Fuzzification in ANFIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3319-3331, July.
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    1. Khamis Naba Sayl & Nur Shazwani Muhammad & Zaher Mundher Yaseen & Ahmed El-shafie, 2016. "Estimation the Physical Variables of Rainwater Harvesting System Using Integrated GIS-Based Remote Sensing Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3299-3313, July.
    2. Wen Zhang & Jing Li & Yunhao Chen & Yang Li, 2019. "A Surrogate-Based Optimization Design and Uncertainty Analysis for Urban Flood Mitigation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4201-4214, September.
    3. Xiang Fu & An-Qiang Li & Hui Wang, 2014. "Allocation of Flood Control Capacity for a Multireservoir System Located at the Yangtze River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4823-4834, October.

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