IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v27y2013i9p3507-3523.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improving Rainfall Forecasting Efficiency Using Modified Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (MANFIS)

Author

Listed:
  • Seyed Akrami
  • Ahmed El-Shafie
  • Othman Jaafar

Abstract

Rainfall is one of the most complicated effective hydrologic processes in runoff prediction and water management. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been widely used for modeling different kinds of nonlinear systems including rainfall forecasting. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) combines the capabilities of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) to solve different kinds of problems, especially efficient in rainfall prediction. This paper after reconsidering conventional ANFIS architecture brings up a modified ANFlS (MANFlS) structure developed with attention to making ANFIS technique more efficient regarding to Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (R 2 ), Root Mean Absolute Error (RMAE), Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) and computing epoch. The modified ANFIS (MANFIS) architecture is simpler than conventional ANFIS with nearly the same performance for modeling nonlinear systems. In this study, two scenarios were introduced; in the first scenario, monthly rainfall was used solely as an input in different time delays from the time (t) to the time (t-4) to conventional ANFIS, second scenario used the modified ANFIS to improve the rainfall forecasting efficiency. The result showed that the model based Modified ANFIS performed higher rainfall forecasting accuracy; low errors and lower computational complexity (total number of fitting parameters and convergence epochs) compared with the conventional ANFIS model. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Seyed Akrami & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Jaafar, 2013. "Improving Rainfall Forecasting Efficiency Using Modified Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (MANFIS)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3507-3523, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:9:p:3507-3523
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0361-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-013-0361-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-013-0361-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. I. Boskidis & G. Gikas & G. Sylaios & V. Tsihrintzis, 2012. "Hydrologic and Water Quality Modeling of Lower Nestos River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(10), pages 3023-3051, August.
    2. M. Akbari & A. Afshar & M. Sadrabadi, 2009. "Fuzzy Rule Based Models Modification by New Data: Application to Flood Flow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(12), pages 2491-2504, September.
    3. Hone-Jay Chu & Liang-Cheng Chang, 2009. "Application of Optimal Control and Fuzzy Theory for Dynamic Groundwater Remediation Design," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(4), pages 647-660, March.
    4. Hadi Sanikhani & Ozgur Kisi & Mohammad Nikpour & Yagob Dinpashoh, 2012. "Estimation of Daily Pan Evaporation Using Two Different Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4347-4365, December.
    5. Panuwat Pinthong & Ashim Das Gupta & Mukand Babel & Sutat Weesakul, 2009. "Improved Reservoir Operation Using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Neurofuzzy Computing," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(4), pages 697-720, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammed Seyam & Faridah Othman & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2017. "RBFNN Versus Empirical Models for Lag Time Prediction in Tropical Humid Rivers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 187-204, January.
    2. J. Villanueva & P. Coustumer & F. Huneau & M. Motelica-Heino & T.R. Perez & R. Materum & M.V.O. Espaldon & S. Stoll, 2013. "Assessment of Trace Metals during Episodic Events using DGT Passive Sampler: A Proposal for Water Management Enhancement," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4163-4181, September.
    3. Afiq Hipni & Ahmed El-shafie & Ali Najah & Othman Karim & Aini Hussain & Muhammad Mukhlisin, 2013. "Daily Forecasting of Dam Water Levels: Comparing a Support Vector Machine (SVM) Model With Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3803-3823, August.
    4. Kulwinder Parmar & Rashmi Bhardwaj, 2015. "River Water Prediction Modeling Using Neural Networks, Fuzzy and Wavelet Coupled Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(1), pages 17-33, January.
    5. Ahmed El-Shafie & Amr El-Shafie & Muhammad Mukhlisin, 2014. "New Approach: Integrated Risk-Stochastic Dynamic Model for Dam and Reservoir Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2093-2107, June.
    6. Gokmen Tayfur & Ata Nadiri & Asghar Moghaddam, 2014. "Supervised Intelligent Committee Machine Method for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1173-1184, March.
    7. Ozgur Kisi & Armin Azad & Hamed Kashi & Amir Saeedian & Seyed Ali Asghar Hashemi & Salar Ghorbani, 2019. "Modeling Groundwater Quality Parameters Using Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(2), pages 847-861, January.
    8. Pavitra Kumar & Sai Hin Lai & Jee Khai Wong & Nuruol Syuhadaa Mohd & Md Rowshon Kamal & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Ali Najah Ahmed & Mohsen Sherif & Ahmed Sefelnasr & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2020. "Review of Nitrogen Compounds Prediction in Water Bodies Using Artificial Neural Networks and Other Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-26, May.
    9. Suiling Wang & Zhiqiang Jiang & Hairong Zhang, 2022. "Correction of Reservoir Runoff Forecast Based on Multi-scenario Division and Multi Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5277-5296, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gokmen Tayfur & Ata Nadiri & Asghar Moghaddam, 2014. "Supervised Intelligent Committee Machine Method for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1173-1184, March.
    2. Isa Ebtehaj & Hossein Bonakdari, 2014. "Performance Evaluation of Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System for Sediment Transport in Sewers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4765-4779, October.
    3. Tao Bai & Lianzhou Wu & Jian-xia Chang & Qiang Huang, 2015. "Multi-Objective Optimal Operation Model of Cascade Reservoirs and Its Application on Water and Sediment Regulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2751-2770, June.
    4. Zaher Mundher Yaseen & Majeed Mattar Ramal & Lamine Diop & Othman Jaafar & Vahdettin Demir & Ozgur Kisi, 2018. "Hybrid Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Models for Water Quality Index Estimation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(7), pages 2227-2245, May.
    5. Gokmen Tayfur & Vijay Singh, 2011. "Predicting Mean and Bankfull Discharge from Channel Cross-Sectional Area by Expert and Regression Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(5), pages 1253-1267, March.
    6. Mohammed Seyam & Faridah Othman, 2014. "The Influence of Accurate Lag Time Estimation on the Performance of Stream Flow Data-driven Based Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2583-2597, July.
    7. Vahid Moosavi & Mehdi Vafakhah & Bagher Shirmohammadi & Negin Behnia, 2013. "A Wavelet-ANFIS Hybrid Model for Groundwater Level Forecasting for Different Prediction Periods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1301-1321, March.
    8. Fi-John Chang & Yu-Chung Wang & Wen-Ping Tsai, 2016. "Modelling Intelligent Water Resources Allocation for Multi-users," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1395-1413, March.
    9. Hadi Sanikhani & Ozgur Kisi & Mohammad Nikpour & Yagob Dinpashoh, 2012. "Estimation of Daily Pan Evaporation Using Two Different Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4347-4365, December.
    10. Miao Zhang & Bo Su & Majid Nazeer & Muhammad Bilal & Pengcheng Qi & Ge Han, 2020. "Climatic Characteristics and Modeling Evaluation of Pan Evapotranspiration over Henan Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-14, July.
    11. A. Yang & G. Huang & X. Qin, 2010. "An Integrated Simulation-Assessment Approach for Evaluating Health Risks of Groundwater Contamination Under Multiple Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3349-3369, October.
    12. Fi-John Chang & Yu-Chung Wang & Wen-Ping Tsai, 2016. "Modelling Intelligent Water Resources Allocation for Multi-users," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1395-1413, March.
    13. Hadi Sanikhani & Ozgur Kisi, 2012. "River Flow Estimation and Forecasting by Using Two Different Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1715-1729, April.
    14. Li Chuangang & Ji Changming & Wang Boquan & Liu Minghao & Li Rongbo, 2017. "The Hydropower Station Output Function and its Application in Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 159-172, January.
    15. Erica Camnasio & Gianfranco Becciu, 2011. "Evaluation of the Feasibility of Irrigation Storage in a Flood Detention Pond in an Agricultural Catchment in Northern Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(5), pages 1489-1508, March.
    16. Dimitris Alexakis & Vassiliοs Tsihrintzis & George Tsakiris & Georgios Gikas, 2016. "Suitability of Water Quality Indices for Application in Lakes in the Mediterranean," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1621-1633, March.
    17. Behrang Beiranvand & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh, 2023. "A Systematic Review of Optimization of Dams Reservoir Operation Using the Meta-heuristic Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3457-3526, July.
    18. Dimitris Alexakis & Vassiliοs A. Tsihrintzis & George Tsakiris & Georgios D. Gikas, 2016. "Suitability of Water Quality Indices for Application in Lakes in the Mediterranean," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1621-1633, March.
    19. Joao Brandão, 2010. "Performance of the Equivalent Reservoir Modelling Technique for Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(12), pages 3101-3114, September.
    20. Lina Sun & Wenxi Lu & Qingchun Yang & Jordi Martín & Di Li, 2013. "Ecological Compensation Estimation of Soil and Water Conservation Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2709-2727, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:9:p:3507-3523. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.