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Impact of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigation Demand: Historical Dynamics of Climate and Future Projections

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  • I. García-Garizábal
  • J. Causapé
  • R. Abrahao
  • D. Merchan

Abstract

Global warming is causing important changes in climate conditions, which must be studied in detail and locally in those zones where irrigated agriculture is developed—the major consumer of water worldwide. This study proposes the climatic characterization of a historical series (1971–2000) and its future projections (2011–2099) for an Irrigation District located in the Middle Ebro Valley (Spain), for three different scenarios: low, medium, and high global emission levels of greenhouse gases. Analysis of historical series reveals a significant increase in reference evapotranspiration (3.3 mm/year 2 ; 2.4 ‰) along with a decrease in precipitation (2.5 mm/year 2 ; 5.6 ‰). A comparison was carried out between real historical data and the scenarios produced by the climate models and it was observed that the most adequate climate model to predict climate in the study zone is MPI-ECHAM5. For the XXI century, MPI-ECHAM5 predicts cyclic climate trends but with a general increment in aridity, which intensifies according to the scenario chosen. Changes in climate are affecting agriculture doubly, since evapotranspiration requirements increase at the same time that water resources decrease. These effects are felt especially in irrigated agriculture, since the growing cycles of the main crops coincide with the months most affected by climate change. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • I. García-Garizábal & J. Causapé & R. Abrahao & D. Merchan, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigation Demand: Historical Dynamics of Climate and Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1449-1462, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:5:p:1449-1462
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0565-7
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    1. Zahidul Islam & Thian Gan, 2015. "Future Irrigation Demand of South Saskatchewan River Basin under the Combined Impacts of Climate Change and El Niño Southern Oscillation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2091-2105, April.
    2. Nam, Won-Ho & Hong, Eun-Mi & Choi, Jin-Yong, 2015. "Has climate change already affected the spatial distribution and temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration in South Korea?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 129-138.
    3. Jorge Bielsa & Ignacio Cazcarro, 2014. "Implementing Integrated Water Resources Management in the Ebro River Basin: From Theory to Facts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Wei Liu & Linshan Yang & Meng Zhu & Jan F. Adamowski & Rahim Barzegar & Xiaohu Wen & Zhenliang Yin, 2021. "Effect of Elevation on Variation in Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Irina Pilvere & Aleksejs Nipers & Agnese Krievina & Ilze Upite & Daniels Kotovs, 2022. "LASAM Model: An Important Tool in the Decision Support System for Policymakers and Farmers," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-26, May.

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