IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v23y2009i14p3005-3018.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bi-site Analysis of Meteorological Drought Duration: Theoretical Modeling and Application

Author

Listed:
  • Zeyad Tarawneh
  • Elgaali Elgaali
  • Moshrik Hamdi

Abstract

Droughts are regional incidents that threat the environment and limit most of the socio-economic activities. Given the dry and wet state sequences for two sites, $X_t^{\left( 1 \right)} $ and $X_t^{\left( 2 \right)} $ , this paper presents a procedure to reduce the two sequences $X_t^{\left( 1 \right)} $ and $X_t^{\left( 2 \right)} $ to one sequence Z t for the purpose of simplifying the analysis of drought duration at two sites jointly. Theoretical models to evaluate the expected value and the variance of the process Z t and the occurrence probability of the dry state at two sites jointly are presented and verified using simulation experiments. Historical data for the period 1939–2005 and generated rainy season precipitation data for two gauging sites in Central Jordan, namely Amman Airport and Madaba, is used in the present study to investigate the occurrence of droughts. The joint analysis of drought duration obtained using the historical precipitation at the two sites appears to be inconsistent especially for droughts of duration longer than 3 years. On the other hand, the joint analysis of drought duration obtained theoretically by employing the characteristics of the process Z t are found to match well with the more reliable drought statistics obtained empirically by analyzing the long generated precipitation. Considering 25 years planning horizon, droughts of 1, 2, and 3 years duration are the most frequent droughts in the region of Central Jordan. The return period of such regional droughts ranges from 8–30 years. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Zeyad Tarawneh & Elgaali Elgaali & Moshrik Hamdi, 2009. "Bi-site Analysis of Meteorological Drought Duration: Theoretical Modeling and Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(14), pages 3005-3018, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:23:y:2009:i:14:p:3005-3018
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9420-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-009-9420-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-009-9420-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2008. "Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1277-1296, September.
    2. B. Bonaccorso & I. Bordi & A. Cancelliere & G. Rossi & A. Sutera, 2003. "Spatial Variability of Drought: An Analysis of the SPI in Sicily," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(4), pages 273-296, August.
    3. A. Cancelliere & G. Mauro & B. Bonaccorso & G. Rossi, 2007. "Drought forecasting using the Standardized Precipitation Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 801-819, May.
    4. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    5. Paulo, A.A. & Ferreira, E. & Coelho, C. & Pereira, L.S., 2005. "Drought class transition analysis through Markov and Loglinear models, an approach to early warning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(1-3), pages 59-81, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
    2. Fadhilah Yusof & Foo Hui-Mean & Jamaludin Suhaila & Zulkifli Yusof, 2013. "Characterisation of Drought Properties with Bivariate Copula Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4183-4207, September.
    3. Jianzhu Li & Shuhan Zhou & Rong Hu, 2016. "Hydrological Drought Class Transition Using SPI and SRI Time Series by Loglinear Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 669-684, January.
    4. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    5. Jianzhu Li & Shuhan Zhou & Rong Hu, 2016. "Hydrological Drought Class Transition Using SPI and SRI Time Series by Loglinear Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 669-684, January.
    6. Tayeb Raziei & Isabella Bordi & Luis Pereira, 2011. "An Application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR Datasets for Drought Variability Analysis in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1075-1086, March.
    7. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2008. "Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1277-1296, September.
    8. Tayeb Raziei & Bahram Saghafian & Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira & Isabella Bordi, 2009. "Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Western Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 439-455, February.
    9. G. Buttafuoco & T. Caloiero & R. Coscarelli, 2015. "Analyses of Drought Events in Calabria (Southern Italy) Using Standardized Precipitation Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 557-573, January.
    10. Dai, Meng & Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Leng, Guoyong & Guo, Yi & Wang, Lu & Fang, Wei & Li, Pei & Zheng, Xudong, 2020. "Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    11. Salim Djerbouai & Doudja Souag-Gamane, 2016. "Drought Forecasting Using Neural Networks, Wavelet Neural Networks, and Stochastic Models: Case of the Algerois Basin in North Algeria," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(7), pages 2445-2464, May.
    12. Ummul Abdul Rauf & Panlop Zeephongsekul, 2014. "Analysis of Rainfall Severity and Duration in Victoria, Australia using Non-parametric Copulas and Marginal Distributions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4835-4856, October.
    13. Tayeb Raziei & Diogo Martins & Isabella Bordi & João Santos & Maria Portela & Luis Pereira & Alfonso Sutera, 2015. "SPI Modes of Drought Spatial and Temporal Variability in Portugal: Comparing Observations, PT02 and GPCC Gridded Datasets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 487-504, January.
    14. Hsin-Fu Yeh & Hsin-Li Hsu, 2019. "Using the Markov Chain to Analyze Precipitation and Groundwater Drought Characteristics and Linkage with Atmospheric Circulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, March.
    15. Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. & Di Lena, B. & Mannocchi, F., 2020. "Bivariate analysis of drought duration and severity for irrigation planning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    16. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Jia-Wei Lin, 2016. "Clustering Quantile Regression-Based Drought Trends in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1069, February.
    17. Anshuka Anshuka & Floris F. van Ogtrop & R. Willem Vervoort, 2019. "Drought forecasting through statistical models using standardised precipitation index: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 955-977, June.
    18. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2007. "Prediction of SPI Drought Class Transitions Using Markov Chains," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(10), pages 1813-1827, October.
    19. L. Wang & Q. Zhu & W. Zhao & X. Zhao, 2015. "The drought trend and its relationship with rainfall intensity in the Loess Plateau of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 479-495, May.
    20. Babak Amirataee & Majid Montaseri, 2017. "The performance of SPI and PNPI in analyzing the spatial and temporal trend of dry and wet periods over Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 89-106, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:23:y:2009:i:14:p:3005-3018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.