IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rar/journl/0037.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Effects of Trade Liberalisation: A Critical Examination

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Ackerman

Abstract

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of world trade, often presented as demonstrating the benefits of trade liberalization, are now making rather less promising forecasts than they used to just a few years ago. The estimated benefits are not only smaller in the aggregate, but also skewed toward the developed countries; the expected contribution of trade liberalization to economic development and poverty alleviation is extremely limited. Calculation of the benefits to be expected of services liberalization, trade facilitation measures, and long-term productivity gains from trade liberalization remains problematical and speculative. The empirical limitations of CGE forecasts stem from broader theoretical weaknesses: the models are largely locked within a static framework and, oddly, assume that trade policy causes no changes in total employment, upwards or downwards (??). Models built on more adequate theories, which have only recently begun to appear, could offer a very different picture of the effects of trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Ackerman, 2006. "Assessing the Effects of Trade Liberalisation: A Critical Examination," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 3, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rar:journl:0037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.francoangeli.it/riviste/Scheda_Riviste.asp?IDArticolo=28580&Tipo=Articolo%20PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krugman, Paul R, 1987. "Is Free Trade Passe?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 131-144, Fall.
    2. Antoine Bouët & Jean‐Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1329-1354, September.
    3. Paul Oslington, 2005. "Unemployment and Trade Liberalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(8), pages 1139-1155, August.
    4. Frank Ackerman, 2001. "Still dead after all these years: interpreting the failure of general equilibrium theory," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 119-139.
    5. Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2002. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 93-119, March.
    6. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    7. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2002. "Computational Analysis of Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the Uruguay Round and Doha Development Round," Working Papers 489, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    8. Stephen Tokarick, 2005. "Who Bears the Cost of Agricultural Support in OECD Countries?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 573-593, April.
    9. Adams, Richard Jr., 2004. "Economic Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Estimating the Growth Elasticity of Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 1989-2014, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shahid Yusuf & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2010. "Changing the Industrial Geography in Asia : The Impact of China and India," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13544.
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Finn Krüger & Lisandra Flach & Erdal Yalcin & Sebastian Benz, 2013. "Dimensionen und Auswirkungen eines Freihandelsabkommens zwischen der EU und den USA," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 62, September.
    3. Sebastian Benz & Erdal Yalcin, 2013. "Quantifying the Economic Effects of an EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4319, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank Ackerman, "undated". "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections," GDAE Working Papers 05-01, GDAE, Tufts University.
    2. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Wusheng Yu, 2007. "Agricultural trade liberalization in the Asia-Pacific region with specific reference to preferential trade agreements - scenario and impact analysis," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Studies in Trade and Investment - AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA, volume 60, pages 131-162, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    3. Fontagné, Lionel & Fouré, Jean, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's box: Modeling world trade patterns at the 2035 horizon," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    4. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2021. "Calibrating Long-Term Trade Baselines in General Equilibrium," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 4, pages 97-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Do unilateral trade preferences help reduce poverty in beneficiary countries?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 249-288, February.
    6. Xavier Cirera & Dirk Willenbockel & Rajith W.D. Lakshman, 2014. "Evidence On The Impact Of Tariff Reductions On Employment In Developing Countries: A Systematic Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 449-471, July.
    7. Bouët, Antoine, 2006. "What can the poor expect from trade liberalization?: opening the "black box" of trade modeling," MTID discussion papers 93, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    9. Niven Winchester, 2006. "Liberating middle earth: How will changes in the global trading system affect New Zealand?," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 45-79.
    10. Daras, Tomasz & Hagemejer, Jan, 2008. "The long run-effects of the Poland's accession to the eurozone. Simulation using POLDYN - a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," MPRA Paper 15760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
    12. Helming, John & Tabeau, Andrzej & Kuhlman, Tom & van Tongeren, Frank, 2006. "Linkage of GTAP and DRAM for scenario assessment: methodology, application and some selected results," Conference papers 331500, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Sebastian Hess & Stephan Von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2008. "A Meta‐Analysis of General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 804-840, June.
    14. Fouré, Jean & Guimbard, Houssein & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2016. "Border carbon adjustment and trade retaliation: What would be the cost for the European Union?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 349-362.
    15. Chauvin, Nicolas Depetris & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2013. "The welfare effect of the new wave of protectionism: The case of Argentina," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151626, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Gouel, Christophe & Mitaritonna, Cristina & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2011. "Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2395-2403.
    17. Moeller, Thordis & Grethe, Harald, 2010. "Climate Change and European Agriculture in 2050: Outlook for Cereal and Oilseed Markets," Conference papers 331938, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    19. Alan Matthews & Keith Walsh, 2006. "The Doha Development Agenda: Mixed Prospects for Developing Countries," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp157, IIIS.
    20. Carlos CINQUETTI, 2008. "Comparative Advantages and Average Costs Under Trade Protection," EcoMod2008 23800024, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Liberalization; Computable General; Equilibrium Models; Poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rar:journl:0037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rossiea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.