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Scenario-based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Water Resources and Demand: A Case Study in the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam—Cambodia

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  • Tran Ty
  • Kengo Sunada
  • Yutaka Ichikawa
  • Satoru Oishi

Abstract

This study investigates an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the potential impacts of climate, land use/cover and population changes on future water availability and demand in the Srepok River basin, a trans-boundary basin. Based on the output from a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (ECHAM 4, Scenarios A2 and B2) developed by the Southeast Asia—System for Analysis, Research and Training (SEA-START) Regional Center, future rainfall was downscaled to the study area and bias correction was carried out to generate the daily rainfall series. Land use/cover change was quantified using a GIS-based logistic regression approach and future population was projected from the historical data. These changes, individually or in combination, were then input into the calibrated hydrological model (HEC-HMS) to project future hydrological variables. The results reveal that surface runoff will be increased with increased future rainfall. Land use/cover change is found to have the largest impact on increased water demand, and thus reduced future water availability. The combined scenario shows an increasing level of water stress at both the basin and sub-basin levels, especially in the dry season. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Tran Ty & Kengo Sunada & Yutaka Ichikawa & Satoru Oishi, 2012. "Scenario-based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Water Resources and Demand: A Case Study in the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam—Cambodia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(5), pages 1387-1407, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:5:p:1387-1407
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9964-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    5. Mohammed Mainuddin & Mac Kirby & Chu Hoanh, 2013. "Impact of climate change on rainfed rice and options for adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 905-938, March.
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    7. M. Viola & C. Mello & S. Beskow & L. Norton, 2014. "Impacts of Land-use Changes on the Hydrology of the Grande River Basin Headwaters, Southeastern Brazil," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4537-4550, October.
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    9. Wei Liang & Dan Bai & Zhao Jin & Yuchi You & Jiaxing Li & Yuting Yang, 2015. "A Study on the Streamflow Change and its Relationship with Climate Change and Ecological Restoration Measures in a Sediment Concentrated Region in the Loess Plateau, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(11), pages 4045-4060, September.
    10. Zhihui Li & Xiangzheng Deng & Feng Wu & Shaikh Shamim Hasan, 2015. "Scenario Analysis for Water Resources in Response to Land Use Change in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Heihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, March.
    11. Dang, Anh Nguyet & Kawasaki, Akiyuki, 2017. "Integrating biophysical and socio-economic factors for land-use and land-cover change projection in agricultural economic regions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 344(C), pages 29-37.
    12. S. Satheeshkumar & S. Venkateswaran, 2020. "Influence of groundwater recharge in Vaniyar sub-basin, South India: inference to socioeconomic benefits," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1211-1239, February.
    13. Uttam Ghimire & Mukand S. Babel & Sangam Shrestha & Govindarajalu Srinivasan, 2019. "A multi-temporal analysis of streamflow using multiple CMIP5 GCMs in the Upper Ayerawaddy Basin, Myanmar," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 59-79, July.

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