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Generation of Daily and Hourly Weather Variables for use in Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

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  • Mohammed Sharif
  • Donald Burn
  • Karen Hofbauer

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of climate change, as projected by two Global Climate Models (GCMs) on the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in the Upper Thames River Basin in the Canadian province of Ontario. The modelling approach presented herein involves a two-stage process of generating daily weather data followed by disaggregation to an hourly time step of select variables for some events. Monthly change fields for three weather variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) were obtained from the output of two GCMs. The historical data set is modified by applying change fields to the weather variables simultaneously and then using this as the driving data set for an improved K-nearest neighbour weather-generating model. Weather sequences representative of climatic conditions in 2050 were simulated. Disaggregation of precipitation data is carried out using a new method that is a hybrid key site approach. A distinct practical advantage of the approach presented here is that extreme wet and dry spells are simulated, which is crucial for evaluation of effective flood and drought management policies for the basin. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Sharif & Donald Burn & Karen Hofbauer, 2013. "Generation of Daily and Hourly Weather Variables for use in Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1533-1550, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:5:p:1533-1550
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0253-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hung-Wei Tseng & Tao-Chang Yang & Chen-Min Kuo & Pao-Shan Yu, 2012. "Application of Multi-site Weather Generators for Investigating Wet and Dry Spell Lengths under Climate Change: A Case Study in Southern Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4311-4326, December.
    2. Hyung-Il Eum & A. Vasan & Slobodan Simonovic, 2012. "Integrated Reservoir Management System for Flood Risk Assessment Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(13), pages 3785-3802, October.
    3. Tran Ty & Kengo Sunada & Yutaka Ichikawa & Satoru Oishi, 2012. "Scenario-based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Water Resources and Demand: A Case Study in the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam—Cambodia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(5), pages 1387-1407, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Salman Sharifazari & Shahab Araghinejad, 2015. "Development of a Nonparametric Model for Multivariate Hydrological Monthly Series Simulation Considering Climate Change Impacts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5309-5322, November.

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