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Impact of climate change on rainfed rice and options for adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin

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  • Mohammed Mainuddin
  • Mac Kirby
  • Chu Hoanh

Abstract

We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the yield of rainfed rice in the lower Mekong Basin and evaluated some adaptation options, using a crop growth simulation model. Future climate projections are based on IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as simulated by ECHAM4 global climate model downscaled for the Mekong Basin using the PRECIS system. We divided the basin into 14 agro-climatic zones and selected a sub-catchment within each zone for the model and assessed the impact for the period of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050. In general, the results suggest that yield of rainfed rice may increase significantly in the upper part of the basin in Laos and Thailand and may decrease in the lower part of the basin in Cambodia and Vietnam. The increase is higher during 2030–2050 compared to the period of 2010–2030 for A2 scenario. For B2 scenario, yield increase is higher during 2010–2030. The impact is mainly due to the change in rainfall and CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere. We have tested widely used adaptation options such as changing planting date, supplementary irrigation, and reduction in fertility stress and found that negative impact on yield can be offset and net increase in yield can be achieved. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Mainuddin & Mac Kirby & Chu Hoanh, 2013. "Impact of climate change on rainfed rice and options for adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 905-938, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:66:y:2013:i:2:p:905-938
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0526-5
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    1. Matthews, R. B. & Kropff, M. J. & Horie, T. & Bachelet, D., 1997. "Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 399-425, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonatan A. Lassa & Allen Yu-Hung Lai & Tian Goh, 2016. "Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 19-33, November.
    2. Carcedo, Ana J.P. & Bastos, Leonardo M. & Yadav, Sudhir & Mondal, Manoranjan K. & Jagadish, S.V. Krishna & Kamal, Farhana A. & Sutradhar, Asish & Prasad, P.V. Vara & Ciampitti, Ignacio, 2022. "Assessing impact of salinity and climate scenarios on dry season field crops in the coastal region of Bangladesh," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Sangam Shrestha & Proloy Deb & Thi Bui, 2016. "Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 15-37, January.
    4. Hung Gia Hoang, 2020. "Vietnamese smallholders’ perspectives on causes, indicators and determinants of climate change: implication for adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1127-1142, October.

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